Jesse

What about your hunch that winter was over back in early January?

Let's allow the current one to play itself out first. The potential is there for lots of action, IMO.

You'll be a rain lover for about five days. After that you'll be ready for the next pattern, and refusing to purchase something.

Destiny is the rising sun.

46/39 today with heavy showers at times. There is new snow on the hills around town, above about 2,500'. Currently 39 with light rain.

Contrary to popular belief, cold air helps if you are wanting snow in the western lowlands. I think the unusually dry nature of our past few arctic outbreaks have given people the inaccurate notion that ultra-cold airmasses are somehow bad for snow around here. Historically that is not the case. It's a mixed bag.

Not a big fan of the 18z ensembles. There are some cold members but the majority of them warm us up in the mid-range.

Love the trend on the Euro and Canadian. Hoping the GFS catches up. Even the GFS ensembles are just ok. Euro and Canadian lead the way in the mid-long range for the arctic blast in early December as well. GFS was waffling until 4-5 days out.

Sooo...the GFS is wrong?

36 degree rain out here.

The 18z and 18z ensemble mean sucked. There were still plenty of cold members, though.

Boring.

I made an educated guess based on last night's Euro ensembles. Didn't work out. What if it had? Would I suddenly be a prophetic genius? The reasoning behind the guess was the same, regardless. I didn't make it just because. If the Euro ensembles had been way worse than the op last night I would have predicted the opposite.

The 12z ensembles weren't bad. Too bad the Euro is getting off the train now. Wait and see...

Settle down Brennan.

Good points. Think negative!

I bet there will be a lot of ensemble members as cold or colder than the operational. I also expect the Euro to improve this morning. The ensemble mean for last night's run was much farther offshore with the blocking than the operational, with lower heights over us.

I don't get the complaining. 12z was a nice run. Definitely snowier.

Nope, just some light, cold drizzle but it was mostly dry. The gorge is cursed now that I'm here.

Wait, what? I was just expecting ZR. Figured the cold air is too shallow.

Agreed, there is a strong signal. Freaking out over it being dry at this point seems absurd, though. Small scale stuff won't start even coming into focus for a few days, at least.

iFred's not on right now. You can peel your lips from his behind.

I really don't understand the wringing of hands over details right now. The models are just now barely even beginning to agree upon an event happening at all. We've got a long ways to go until we can start nailing down duration of cold and precip amounts. This thing could go lots of ways, assuming it's even going to be a thing.

They're. And they were. You are just trying to get a rise out of people. Bainbridgekid did a great job of combating your BS earlier, luckily.

PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06. No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies.