Jesse

I'm sure you will find another foothills resident that agrees with this wholeheartedly. Which is great for you. Misery loves company! I think there is still potential down the road, though.

Summer 1977 started out fairly average in June in July. Then of course we had the major heatwave the first half of August. After that the weather abruptly changed to cooler and wetter the last half of August. This carried over into September, which was wet and chilly that year.

The 12Z is a solidly chilly run.

You're absolutely right. They have done a bang up job this year.

I think maybe the models initially latching onto the big pattern crash too quickly has fooled us. This often happens. A cold/snowy pattern could still be in the cards, just a little later than we were expecting. Perhaps towards the second week of the month or so (Euro weeklies support this idea). Or maybe nothing will happen. Who knows. Some mountain snow would be nice at very least. 27 at PDX this morning!

A cool, wet summer sounds fine to me. Needs to be cool and wet at some point.

Idiotic discussion tonight!

36/31 out here today. VERY springlike.

Are you feeling this one?

I'm liking my chances in the Gorge as well.

That was the cold wave when Seneca fell to -54f for an Oregon record, right? Btw could you link me to that site that has top ten warmest and coldest months for PDX? I recently got a new laptop and lost the old link.

This. You are winning me over lately.

Wow, just wow. Incredible 12z runs. Please let this happen. We are SO overdue to get hit in the late Jan/early Feb time frame!!

The 12z Ensembles are fantastic. Easily the best yet. Hoping to see a good 12z Euro run keep up the momentum this morning.

It is a great run. What are you talking about? I would work on your analysis a little. While at work I will often see you post something strange about a model run, only to check it for myself and have it be the exact opposite of what you said. This has happened several times.

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

My point exactly. Chances are elevated right now.

I really like the 12Z. The cold is here by Wednesday, then sticks around the entire run. Could be looking at a snow event out here next Friday if models keep showing that little system.

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

We just had a GFS op run that spit out major arctic air, and there are quite a few fairly cold ensemble members. I think completely ruling out arctic air is silly at this point, with several things pointing to the possibility. And of course 4" (or a trace, as you'd call it) blanketing the western lowlands is never likely. I don't see the point in even making such an obvious statement.

Springlike!

I think some sort of arctic intrusion is certainly possible. Lots of cold air over the NH to work with, and what appears to be a large scale retrogression of the pattern than has dominated North America the last 3-4 weeks. If things stay amplified enough, a tap into some arctic air sometime over the next 2-3 weeks is not out of the question IMO.

That wasn't in the thesaurus. Way to think outside the box!

Something about how I will definitely see snow next month. Something about how I don't care about it anyway, attempting to make everyone else without that kind of guarantee feel badly.