Jesse

12z ensembles are decent. Definitely good agreement on a big pattern change at this point.

There is strong offshore flow right now thanks to the massive, inversion induced cold pool east of the cascades. PDX has been seeing east wind gusts close to 40mph. I think that has more to do with the clearing down the valley than the blisteringly strong late January sun. Rush the seasons to a ridiculous extent if you'd like though. You won't find me talking about fall in late July. Maybe mid-August at the earliest. By then the change in daylight actually becomes noticeable to the casual observer. Just like the lengthening days will in mid-February.

Or just a ridgy period in late January...

It has been cold, windy and foggy in spots out here in the gorge the last several days. I have been pretty pleased with the fake cold associated with the ridge. Nice reminder that the inversion season is still in full swing in late January, despite some people trying to shorten it by a week on each end with every passing year. Had highs only in the 30s yesterday and Monday. There is also a considerable amount of freezing fog on the higher hills. Makes it look like the trees have a fresh coating of snow. A nice reminder that it is definitely still winter!

Why the trolling?

Why? I thought winter was over like three weeks ago?

By the way, is there an ignore feature on this forum?

All cold and snow events start out as hints in the long range.

We haven't seen this much action in the long range for a while. Last time we did I recall it getting pretty cold a few weeks later. Maybe this time we'll fare better in the snow department.

I like both cold and snow. Hope nobody here is mad at me for that.

The 18z ensembles look good.

Assuming you're being serious, I'm thinking our best shot will be in that time frame as well.

12z op/ensembles both seem pretty solid on a quick breakdown of the ridge and a chilly, wet pattern. Not sure where all this talk of the ridge sticking around and split flow is coming from.

No, because the first part of the sentence is an out and out falsehood.

Not me. It's going through its initial fits and starts as models get a hold on things. I guess if you were "impressed" by anything the models were spitting out beyond 240 hours at some point that's your deal.

Unbridled pessimism and unbridled optimism are both intellectually dishonest. But unbridled pessimism is a heck of a lot more grating. Too bad more people can't make middle ground posts here. I notice that's how most pro-mets post...

You are almost insufferable lately. Must be a foothills thing.

Summer-like almost. No wonder everyone's grass is greening up.

Yes. Only comments of extreme pessimism or optimism are allowed here. The middle ground clearly offers nothing. Moderation be damned!

Careful, you might lose your "advanced member" status with comments like this.

I don't think Skagit weather's stats are very representative of any lowland location. I have also seen six consecutive sub-freezing lows. Tomorrow morning should be #7. Even PDX saw their fourth freeze in a row this morning.

QFC? Yuppie.

Pretty incredible amount of cold over both North America and Eurasia on day 10 of the Euro.

12z Euro and the GFS ensembles look pretty decent for us. Looks like they are directly at odds with the unofficial forecast created by Andrew's chickens and ducks this morning.

Thanks for the info. My original question was to you after all.