Jesse

What a godsend that pattern would be. A good analog could be the trough tease in early August 2018 that ultimately ended up digging well offshore and giving us another heatwave.

Fits well with my prediction of the weather doing something over the next couple weeks.

Careful. There are some here who are incredibly defensive about the topic. Like you will make them cry.

There have almost been enough withered dead leaves around here left over from the gates of hell opening for a couple days in late June to warrant a second leafblower season entirely.

I found the will to go out on the porch and watch it as well as snap a photo of the pretty pink clouds despite clearly hating my life.

Looks like the 00Z GFS likes the idea of that little vort max lifting north late Saturday/early Sunday as well.

Talking about how ridiculously warm and dry it’s been in a bad light is quite offensive. Not like people are actually affected by things like severe drought and wildfire. Now if they closed the Keizer In-N-out!!

So if we see literally anything other than a stagnant, sprawling 4CH centered to our east and weak onshore flow west of the Cascades in the next few weeks you will call it a forecasting win. That’s like Phil level hedging.

Weren’t you just talking about a high end heat event in the wake of the last run? That would be more of the same.

For the record, neither the 12z EPS mean nor the Euro operational are showing a pattern shake up with troughing inland and more heat near the coast at day 10. That’s just a different flavor of a roided up 4CH driven western heat pattern, still centered inland with troughing offshore on the EPS and operational.

It’s all good. I think people will see a lot of complaining about the heat and rainlessness and just associate it all with me, even if I’m not logged in. That said, I definitely haven’t been happy with the weather this summer, but that can be said about most summers recently.

12z EPS 500mb mean on the left, op on the right. Hour 240: Some slight differences...

I don’t understand how it can be considered a pattern shake up when it’s the same net result, more heat. 90% of the western US has been sitting in some form of heatwave for the better part of a month now. Hotter here would simply take an expansion of the current pattern, which looks to happen later this week. A pattern shake up would be western troughing in some form.

Fair. I was going to comment yesterday that you have made a definite move toward more weather related content lately. I’m not complaining. Another major heat event would really suck on multiple levels. Kind of goes without saying. That said I’m not seeing anything too striking on the models aside from the odd Euro op run at day 10.

Weird post. If anything I have been more toned down and posting less than usual considering the horrible weather. And using posting patterns here to read into someone’s personal life is kind of silly.

I think Matt has been dipping into Jim’s candy stash the last few days. Impressive August jet at hour 377 of the 06z Euro!

There has been plenty of meteorological analysis this morning, it just doesn’t happen to be in your preferred flavor of embracing any and all sun and warmth no matter how destructive it is. We all know who’s really good at that here, and that’s why he consistently gets a free pass from you.

The weather itself has been melodramatic, so yeah simply talking about what has happened seems pretty hyperbolic. Hope we hit 110+ again!

So many fun and interesting paths to the same end result, historic heat and crippling drought.

Worst case scenario is the name of the game lately.

Already looking way hotter on Friday and Saturday than the GFS.

Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough? Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough verified about 500 miles NW of us and is about to pump up our next heat event.

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

You forgot about the Sunday curse