Clinton

Looks like the amounts will be close to the GHD-3 storm for us.

GFS did the same thing to Chicago. It has a big problem in the 2-5 day range (could be it's warm bias) and it shouldn't be that bad.

Good question and I prefer their probability maps which by the way look good for KC. https://www.weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf

Updated forecast from EAX

18z HRRR is like the NAM in a lot of ways but about 50 miles further SE. 3km NAM

It holds the upper level storm together and doesn't shear it out. Gary mentioned this in his blog this morning, this even shows some convection SE side of KC.

Or at least get some rain anything would help your area. At least there are a few chances of precip showing up. I mentioned a storm in early March, that one could right a few wrongs in the precipitation department.

12z Euro came NW a little, very sharp northern cut-off.

Next week looks active across the northern plains

Looks like my office applied the amounts from the Euro on to the track of the GFS. Maybe a little conservative my grid says 4-8.

I can't say enough how excited I am about severe weather season this year!

Winter Storm Warning issued: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

12z CMC 15z RAP is north and a good hit for Tom

12z GEFS and EPS are in agreement on the track for the KC area, GEFS is wetter.

12z GFS south a hair but pretty steady from 6z.

12z NAM great for KC and Detroit

It struggles in the the 2-5 day range for sure but it's been good (not perfect) in the 5 to 10 day and inside 24 hrs. I had hoped for better with the upgrade in the mid-range.

I would prefer for it to warm up the second week of March to achieve a good growing season. Hope we get some widespread moisture between now and then esp in the dry areas. Severe weather season will be wild down my way imo.

12Z HRRR

@TomIf the artic air stays close enough to be taped into. March 3-5th is the time period I'm looking forward to for a large widespread snow. Late next week is interesting also.

I agree it looks good for all of us in the area. Thunder sleet and thunder snow, sounds like a great storm.

6z Euro still south of the GFS but it did come north some.

6z GFS

Just got keep it there another 24 hrs. Good luck, looks like the modes are all over the place for Chicago.

3z SREF Mean @indianajohn @jaster220 @Niko