Clinton

0z GEFS trending further NW, many juiced members.

The Kuchera maps are even more ridiculous.

0z GFS lots of moisture

My office made the same mistake. The 10:1 maps almost verified for the GHD-3 storm at this range down my way the Kuchera maps were way over done. Not sure why models over due QPF in the winter and under sell in the summer.

18z Euro Control Mean

I may end up disappointed but I feel like the GFS is doing better with this storm. It did better with the last one aswell.

18z GFS

12z Euro ensembles seem to slowly moving toward the GFS, a better looking mean this run.

12z GEFS, many members have trended colder and stronger. Still 5 days out.

You called it lets hope it doesn't go to far north lol.

12z GFS

12z GFS with a big hitter, blizzard or near blizzard conditions from KC, Chicago, into Michigan.

6z GEFS and Euro Mean. Several of the Euro members are more organized and colder compared to the 0z. Seems like we may see a trend for a stronger storm further NW today.

6z EC also shifted to the NW still not as far as the GFS.

0z GEFS members looking better tonight for a faster organizing storm.

EAX seems more excited about this storm than the models do. The potential for a strong winter storm system continues to increase Wednesday - Thursday. Models are still in agreement with a positively tilted upper-level trough dropping into the Great Basin and Four Corners region before becoming more neutrally oriented as it moves out onto the Plains. Primary concerns will be focused on how quickly cold air will move in and cool the column. If the mid-levels cool rather quickly, we could see a pretty quick transition from rain to snow. If the mid-levels are slow to cool, then a wintry mix will be more likely with a slower transition over to all snow. The other concern is if this system ejects in two pieces as a shortwave ejecting out first and the main trough delayed. The two-part solution would quickly complicate the forecast and impact precipitation amount/type. Quite a few details to iron out in the next few days.

0z GFS and ICON wouldn't need much a nudge north to give KC a nice snow. Good hits from mby up to southern Michigan.

The storm is currently SW of the Aleutian Islands so there is time for changes. However in KC when the AO and NAO are both positive storms tend to either cut and miss us to the NW or be weak and strengthen to our east. Still time for improvements but the trend today is no good.

EAX mentioning the potential for blizzard conditions in KC in this mornings AFD That leads into the strong storm system models continue to show track across the middle of the country late Wednesday through Thursday. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to show good agreement with the ECMWF still a bit slower and a bit more south with the 500mb vorticity center at 12Z Thursday. The GFS also has more of a negative tilt sooner which induces stronger lift and a more pronounced deformation zone, that sits over eastern KS and western MO Thursday. The ECMWF is a little later to take on a negative tilt leading to a deformation zone that is further east of the area. This difference in the position/time/angle of the upper trough also affects the surface wind fields. The GFS produces a stronger pressure gradient further west and would result in near blizzard conditions over the forecast area if it verified. With the later/more easterly negative tilt of the ECMWF, the stronger winds are further east as well. That said, there`s still a lot of uncertainty with some critical aspects of this storm. The track of the storm, the thermal profile, how quickly temperatures cool are still very uncertain at this point. Overall, this system has the potential to produce accumulating snow, potentially heavy, across portions of KS and MO, combined with strong and gusty winds.

0z GFS

I remember the predictions we made at the beginning of Winter, your right on track.

Yes

And the fact that a severe weather outbreak has happened in both previous cycles has my attention. As we move into mid/late April this will likely impact both Omaha and KC. Might be a good time for a chase!

Dec 10th and 11th.

The AO and NAO should keep that from happening. I worry more about it going the other way.