ShawniganLake

Huh. Seems like the cold cluster is winning the long range ensemble battle.

The 12z was similar but with the bullseye over the south sound.

Sunday has looked good for the puget sound.

I guess not. That was what the euro was showing 10 days before the February snowstorm. Check the date stamped on the map.

Dropped down to 27F here this morning. The GFS has sure trended away from anything good next week.

I never really know where you live, does that look really good for you?

This gardening talk reminded me..... I was driving around yesterday and noticed that a local vegetable producer lost all of his glass greenhouses in the recent snowstorm. Totally collapsed. They produced tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers for as long as I can remember.

Euro was much different for the weekend. Has 850mb temps above freezing for the puget sound on Sunday.

Shows 20-40" for southern Vancouver island. That would be fun.

I agree. The ensemble improved quite a bit. 6z GFS is just a thing of beauty. (Likely more so for Northern regions.)

Looks like an Oregon special.

Statistical models say Neutral. Dynamical average says Nino. Quite the spread between the two. http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/figure4.gif

I fear it may be a long chilly spring for the sun lovers. I doubt its going to be an early start for the veggie garden. As for the Euro, I guess we will see, but it hasn't seemed to be all that great with the long range details this year.

Long range Euro is pretty disappointing.

Definitely. The euro ensembles drop to -3 as well.

The blocking in the long range on the GFS looks much better on the 12Z.

Obviously we will have to see where it goes, but I haven't really liked the progression on the past couple GFS runs. 18z GEFS 500mb anomalies looked a little less solid with the blocking in the long range. Of course in early February, the models looked totally lost until almost 72hrs out.