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ShawniganLake

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Everything posted by ShawniganLake

  1. ShawniganLake
    I was thinking the same thing about December 2009. Only 5" of snow here but the -3.3F departure is pretty respectable.
  2. ShawniganLake
    Looking at the Mtn snow situation here on the south Island, it is looking pretty grim currently, starting to trend below last years' and the record low snowpack lines. Low snowpack and the hot dry summer last season combined to cause critically low river levels. Hopefully there is not a repeat of that. http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/data/asp/realtime/graphs/spd3b23p.gif
  3. ShawniganLake
    When is a grand solar minimum coming?
  4. ShawniganLake
    Holy , Looks cold in the east. That's new.
  5. ShawniganLake
    The last week or so up here has been one of the most miserable weeks I can ever remember. Constant low clouds, fog, drizzle. I had a three day stretch with a min of 41F and a max of 44F. One day was 43/42. Typically with stronger winter inversion type patterns we end up being above the fog and gunk in Shawnigan Lake. I would prefer it if it had of just been pounding sideways rain for the last week. Would have been more enjoyable.
  6. ShawniganLake
    Maybe Phil meant the gulf coast to east coast has seen coast to coast cold.
  7. ShawniganLake
    Looks like 9 or 10 members drop into the -5 to -10C range around the same timeframe as the operational, for Seattle. So I wouldn't say a major outlier. About the only thing you can take away from the ensemble in that range, with the amount of spread shown, is that blocking is going to try to set up during the last 10 days of January. Whether or not it does us an good, is a guess right now.
  8. ShawniganLake
    It obviously will be, its not like we are going to see a -10C ensemble mean for Seattle at day 15. That just doesn't happen. Considering the height anomaly center out near western Alaska on the 6Z ensemble, the long range gfs solutions this morning aren't really that surprising. Considering the GEM ensemble also has positive height anomalies near the Aleutians in the long range, I would think we might see a few more good long range forecasts upcoming.
  9. ShawniganLake
    2 in a row! Hot D**n, this is getting serious. How do you know its an outlier on the 12z?
  10. ShawniganLake
    Aleutian Ridging! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015011200/gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
  11. ShawniganLake
    Seasonable temps and drier than normal in the long range. Looks like it might get cold in Ontario, Canada, after Jan.20th.
  12. ShawniganLake
    I believe the 12z Canadian ensemble showed a similar signal.
  13. ShawniganLake
    January 1989 was a seasonably coolish month, a little drier up this way. January 1996 was mostly soggy and mild for the first 2 weeks. Of course they were both La Nina winters, so I am not sure those are the best years to be looking at.
  14. ShawniganLake
    But what are the livestock going to eat. Beef and bacon are good.
  15. ShawniganLake
    Same here, deer by the dozens in our subdivision. They are actually overpopulating the island, they eat everything green. Some people would like to see their population controlled. We also had a resident black bear around here last summer. They were trying to trap it but don't think they ever did, so it will likely be back come spring. Also lots of cougar nearby, but they only get seen on a rare occasion.
  16. ShawniganLake
    Yep, 24hrs ago I thought I would be waking up to snow this morning. In reality it wasn't even close. Not a flake. Even places in the 1000-1500ft range had light to even no accumulation. The flow never really went easterly here I guess, no cold air damming.
  17. ShawniganLake
    Feb 1989. My area recorded 26 days of snowcover that month. Big arctic blast to open the month. Carried over into the first week of March as well
  18. ShawniganLake
    Environment Canada is forecasting about 1" for the lowest elevations near the coast with up to 4-8" inland and higher Elevations.
  19. ShawniganLake
    Wouldn't surprise me if something quick hitting happened mid month before the Aleutian low takes over the second half.
  20. ShawniganLake
    Would that be a better scenario for us as the mjo comes back around in February? Or no?
  21. ShawniganLake
    Out to 72hrs the snow coverage is even a little better for the northern areas. The Fraser river outflow is being modelled a little stronger this morning, both the 6Z and 12Z. Could end up being a bigger event for the East Island area. The easterly flow drops the 925Mb temps well below freezing with plenty of upsloping. 4-8" for my area. Maybe 8-12" farther north. Too bad it will all melt in a day or two. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif
  22. ShawniganLake
    All I was saying was what the gfs was showing at this time. The signs aren't really positive right now but I guess we can't rule out some type of marginal quick hitting event. I really had faith that January was going to be much kinder to us.
  23. ShawniganLake
    Euro weeklies are ugly for the month.
  24. ShawniganLake
    More interesting than the gfs.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png
  25. ShawniganLake
    After Mondays system clears, the first half of January is looking like it could be a total snoozefest on the GFS. Mild too.
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