ShawniganLake

I plan to stay tuned. It's fun to follow. I am usually able to avoid suicidal thoughts when the models trend poorly or when the warm season ends up warm.

At this point I like the way the euro is handling the potential second shot. Doubt that one would be totally dry up here. Of course it will likely change slightly with each model run though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Hallelujah.

I appreciate your efforts though. Makes following the models easier when I am away from home and only have my phone to use.

looks like the blocking tries to reorganize to the west towards to 9. So that's good. Unfortunately also looks like it is trying to be undercut as it does so.

Backdoor events usually lead to underwhelming results for Fraser outflow. The Fraser Canyon is oriented north/south and does much better with strong northerly gradients.

I honestly have no clue. Probably gonna get a little chilly but not sure if I would use the term blast to describe anything I have seen in the models. I guess the gorge might get going.

I am not sure how you have the energy to do this day after day.....good on you. I am kind of getting tired of tracking these marginal cold model runs, where a 100 mile shift at day 7 or 10 would make the difference between something and nothing. Waiting and hoping to see a true blast come down through BC on the models. The backdoorish type setups are getting old.

Do you mean the modified arctic blast for this weekend?...............The one that hasn't actually verified yet?

Yep. Gfs ensembles in pretty good agreement through to New Years on the 12z. Not much hope there.

GET HIM. What's his fcuking number?

I apologize for all of us Canadians. I feel like a real jerk this morning. On the upside, I was kind of only looking at the last week of December as maybe a little bonus shot. Been on the "early to mid January train" for many months, since looking at the possible analogues back in September.

Its garbage. Go January.

DJ. You still have energy for this after what happened an hour ago?

12z doesn't even offer us anything in the long range. Winter Cancel?

12Z is almost laughably bad.

Based on last nights runs, I feel a January 1950 is a worst case outcome.

What about the UKMET for sunday! http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

When I look at the euro I don't see big Fraser outflow or much chance for snow along the east island. At least for this weekend.

Snowier than 2008 in the PNW? You do know how much it snowed here that month don't you? That's a bold prediction. Hope you're right.

Hard to imagine it wouldn't be snowing in SW BC/ Northern Washington on Sunday morning. 850's of -4 to -6C, low pressure to the south and northerly winds veering to the NE.

Hr 144 still looks promising. Much better run tonight.

I go with the regular GFS, has the parallel proven itself yet? My feeling is no.

Not a Lynch fan, but that was pretty frickin unreal.