Front Ranger

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think there is some conflation with "spring" and April. Spring also includes May, which has seen a distinct tendency towards warmer + drier than average since 2015. Including a solid handful of Mays in that timeframe (2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023) where it effectively didn't rain the whole month across wide swaths of the region. You expect one or two of those per decade but the pace has really accelerated recently.

The early part of spring has been pretty distinct from the latter part of spring when it comes to the departures from average, since March and April haven't seen a sharp statistical trend in that direction but May and early June (still more spring climo-wise) definitely have.

Also, you're looking mainly at precip here. Temps are a large part of the discussion as well.

Where you draw the line matters, of course. 2015 and 2016 alter the discussion for May from 2017, and if you go back to 2013 or further it also changes. 

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think there is some conflation with "spring" and April. Spring also includes May, which has seen a distinct tendency towards warmer + drier than average since 2015. Including a solid handful of Mays in that timeframe (2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023) where it effectively didn't rain the whole month across wide swaths of the region. You expect one or two of those per decade but the pace has really accelerated recently.

The early part of spring has been pretty distinct from the latter part of spring when it comes to the departures from average, since March and April haven't seen a sharp statistical trend in that direction but May and early June (still more spring climo-wise) definitely have.

The conversation started with someone talking about summer starting in April. That's where the stats shared have been focused. 

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I think most of that is due to the persistent la Nina since 2017. We should have been running pretty significantly wetter and colder than normal, but it ended up being normal temps.

February and March are the months with the strongest statistical correlation to ENSO. That period has run significantly below normal since 2017. Not wetter than normal, though.

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

At least we agree on OLM being fubar.

That's what the facts support. 

Just like the facts support PNW springs being fairly close to normal overall in recent years. And they support the summer season, particularly July and August, being off the rails warm and dry.

The anomalies across western WA this month add further credence to the theory that something really has broken at OLM.

It's been drier than normal with plenty of sun and clear skies at night. In the past, this would almost always lead to OLM having cooler anomalies than SEA and most other sites.

But this April...

OLM: +.7

BLI: -1.3

Seattle WFO: +.4

SEA: -1.0

BFI: +.3

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Who said anything about July and August. This discussion was about the warming and drying of late spring around here. 

Apparently nuance means shifting what the entire discussion is about when you don’t like the point that’s being made.

You were talking about summer/the warm season starting in April. The stats I provided were for April. 

July/August are part of the warm season, and what's happened with those months recently is a far cry from the spring months.

For most the lowland PNW, 12z Euro shows 4 of the next 10 days warmer than normal, 4 below normal, and 2 right around normal.

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t live anywhere near SEA. Just like you don’t live anywhere near OLM.

I'll try to use a less obscure PNW lowland station next time. 

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Bigger picture (tough for some I realize) is that this warm and dry April dovetails pretty well with the trend toward our  dependably warm and dry season getting earlier in recent years, and encroaching into the latter half of spring more often that not

What has happened in July and August the past decade or so though is really on a whole different level than any other months, though. It's not close.

I think that's a fair point, but you might disagree...

27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Warming and drying late springs/early onset to summer are part of that story. Cherry picked rainfall stats from SEA don’t change that.

Cherry-picked? Those are the last 7 years. You literally said recent years.

But you're right. No room for nuance in this discussion.

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good point... this April is definitely a little different than recent years which have often been wet.   

That is factually accurate. Doesn't fit some narratives, though.

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As usual, wtf is your point? That not every year has completely record breaking heat and drought? Solid proof the climate isn’t warming

I'm suggesting the death of spring in the PNW may be slightly exaggerated. 

The death of traditionally temperate summers? That's a real story.

SEA had wetter than average Aprils in 2023, 2022, 2019, 2018, and 2017. Three wetter than average Mays in that period.

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Summer still started in April last year, just later in the month. The only recent year that decidedly hasn’t been the case was 2022, but we more than payed for that coolish mid-April to mid-June, with summer stretching into mid October.

I would say 2020, 2019, 2018, and most definitely 2017 summer also did not start in April.

27 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

why did you ruin a beautiful photo montage with a Trump sign?

Because it's Andrew, master troll. No coincidence it was first either.

Though to be fair, just about anywhere rural those signs are undeniably part of Americana now.

1 hour ago, Groundhog said:

Had some serious torching that didn’t have ensemble support in the models. The kids sure found it exciting. 

I too enjoy my nachos well done.

5 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

And no more drought. Just some small areas in the north and south with abnormally dry conditions.

Literally the least droughty CA has ever been on those maps, at least that I've seen.

47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What are your thoughts on this disaster @SilverFallsAndrew

Just now, BLI snowman said:

A little early for the dry season to be starting.

If I were in SE King County, I'd be getting pretty nervous about the prospects for a really wet Memorial Day to 4th of July stretch.

Yep. Be careful what you wish for.

4 hours ago, Phil said:

This is random but I’d also like to experience this so called “heavy drizzle” that you guys talk about. I can’t wrap my mind around what the heck that even is.

It's nature sweating like she's in the DC swamp in August.

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s check back in a couple days.

Ok...that wasn't the point of my post, though. Was just looking at April so far, and PDX is the warm outlier. 

April will be a bit warmer in a couple days, but the second part won't change.

5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like most spots I’ve looked at are between 0 to +1,  so it’s not like PDX is that much of an outlier.

And those numbers will only be going up the next several days.

PDX is the warmest I see. SLE, SEA, and BLI are all running below average anomalies.

Hopefully the 12z run continues this theme. Quite chilly for almost the entire West.

One third the way through April, looks like most places are running right around normal or a bit below. Except PDX...rocking a +1.1.