Front Ranger

The good ol' -PDO years. Speaking of which, this month might actually see the PDO go negative for the first time in a long time. Should be close.

The anomaly at DEN has dropped from around +10 a week ago to about +3.5 now.

Your expectations may be too high. It looks like there will be snow opportunities for some folks in the lowlands Christmas week. That's better than most years.

On the bright side, the Euro looks like it offers multiple lowland snow opportunities through Christmas.

That Aleutian/GOA low is too strong and too far east.

Both 12z runs of the GFS/Euro were actually fairly similar in the overall pattern progression through day 8. The Euro is just more amplified and colder.

The Euro snow maps will be interesting.

Hour 168. Christmas.

Day 6/Hour 144.

At day 5, the Euro is still easily stronger/more amplified with the offshore ridge compared to the GFS. Not quite as amplified as the 0z, though. The low in the far west Aleutians is closer, which may cause the ridge to break down sooner.

12z Euro is looking more favorable for this than the GFS did. It's also much cooler for western WA at day 4 than the GFS.

The 12z Canadian goes off the rails after day 5, but up to that point it looks much more like the Euro than the crappy GFS runs.

So you think the Euro is out to lunch?

Exactly. The changes towards the Euro solution in days 4-6 are what matter. Christmas day would be mostly dry and cold, with a few flurries in spots, if this run were to verify.

This GFS run is definitely making a move towards the Euro. More energy held further west in the Aleutians, resulting in stronger ridge amplification offshore,

At day 4 on the 12z, ridge is in a little better position and more tilted. Colder already for the PNW.

FWIW, 0z Euro ensembles were strongest yet with the offshore ridge days 4-8. Days 9-10, they were a little weaker than the 12z ensembles with trying to re-establish.

The 6z GFS did show a low taking an interesting track at day 6. Not a lot of cold air to draw from at face value, but still.

Who cares. It's so much better than the GFS at day 6. Where exactly it goes from there remains to be seen, but that's the period that really determines potential. The Euro has basically stuck to its guns, which bodes well.

The position of the ridge is pretty good, but for whatever reason 850s don't get as cold by day 8 as the 12z. But yes, frigid temps in the Yukon/BC.

At day 7, this run is not as cool as 12z. But it's still holding the block in a good place, potential snow chances with offshore flow. Still worlds different than GFS.

Day 6. Ridge is centered a bit too far west, but plenty strong. 10x better than GFS solution.

Euro already looking way better than GFS.

Yes, but most of the time it isn't snowing in those areas. Last winter, for instance.

I respect this. Consistency and objectivity. You're loyally sticking with King Euro, as you would do if it sucked. Down with the ship...