Front Ranger

Snow will approve. SCORE!

It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.

A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.

Agreed. It's not as strong with the Sat/Sun trough for you guys, which would mean heigher heights, drier and not quite as cold, less chance of CZ snow. But those are just the small details...the overall pattern development is definitely a step in right direction. Though I still would really like to see that Aleutian low complex further west.

At hour 150, ridge is definitely still more tilted and amplified than last couple GFS runs, but looks like cold air will miss just east again.

At hour 111, ridge is definitely tilted more, which should allow better cold air penetration into the PNW. Looking kinda similar to last night's GEM.

The initial trough digging into the West on Christmas day is a bit further west on the 18z. SE ridge is also a bit further west and stronger.

12z GEM ensemble mean is much closer to the GFS/Euro solution...so close, but the ridge is just a little too far east and progressive. Still time for this to improve as we get closer, of course. You don't get a -EPO signal much stronger than this.

The latest trend in the models in the mid range is to still tank the EPO, but not the AO. And going back and forth on the PNA (the 0z runs really wanted to tank it, Euro/GEM especially, today not quite as much).

Great improvement for the 0z runs tonight. Models have really been struggling as they often do with an incoming pattern change, but hopefully we'll start seeing some consistency with this improved trend. Notable improvements coming in the believable 3-6 day range with tonight's runs, that's the important part.

It's currently raining, something you don't see often in December here.

I agree. What's important are the changes in days 3-6. Beyond that...we've all been reminded recently how poor the models can be days 7+.

Go with whatever model spits out the best run! Duh.

Both versions of GFS are looking better. Too bad that mega-low isn't 200 mi further west...

Jim no likey.

Could have swore you posted pics of Christmas snow a couple years ago.

Looking like no white Christmas here, either. I've been spoiled...only 2 years since 2005 haven't at least had snow on the ground.

I'm so sad I missed this. But yeah, no doubt the pattern is definitely the larger driver, whether you're talking summer or winter low temps. Nelsen should certainly know better.

I remember seeing a study quite awhile ago about how El Nino-fueled warmth creates higher dew points and more convection in CA. Seems like the warmer coastal waters would have a similar, but smaller effect in the PNW.

It was just an example of how seemingly small things in our climate can have surprisingly large effects. Personally, I can't vehemently condemn or praise Cliff Mass or other pro mets in his camp, because I honestly don't know.

That could be the real reason for all the low level warmth.

On the other hand, it's kind of crazy how much atmospheric circulations are apparently tied to SSTA in a relatively small area of the tropical Pacific. Just saying. The climate holds many secrets.

Because the models always make the cold air go east.

Strong feelings on water temps!

About the same odds for SEA hitting 0 this winter.