Front Ranger

Yeah, that ends up being the biggest difference in the mid range this run.

Well, despite differences in the pattern evolution, pretty similar result by day 6. Chilly and dry. Again, just shift everything 5 degrees and the PNW is probably golden.

At hour 129, things aren't looking too bad. Big difference with that much stronger low north of HI, as DJ pointed out. Ridge is also stronger, a little more forcing coming down it appears.

Weekend shortwave is WAY further north/slower on this run.

Ok, Ricardo.

That's pretty much what the internet is all about.

Hopefully they're not sold out already after the JMA the other night.

579 heights approaching Alaska. Classic.

The really funny thing (to me) is that some of the vehement discussions that go on here about sea surface temps and marine pushes aren't far off from the ideological arguments found in religion/politics. Of course, this includes me. Though I've mellowed quite a bit with old age.

Snow will approve. SCORE!

It's always been the standard, dog. Whether you're joking or not (we all know you actually love Christmas), if it's religion or politics, it's off-limits here and pretty much any moderated forum that doesn't have to do with one of those two things.

A little Seahawks talk is one thing, but pretty sure religion and politics don't belong here.

Agreed. It's not as strong with the Sat/Sun trough for you guys, which would mean heigher heights, drier and not quite as cold, less chance of CZ snow. But those are just the small details...the overall pattern development is definitely a step in right direction. Though I still would really like to see that Aleutian low complex further west.

At hour 150, ridge is definitely still more tilted and amplified than last couple GFS runs, but looks like cold air will miss just east again.

At hour 111, ridge is definitely tilted more, which should allow better cold air penetration into the PNW. Looking kinda similar to last night's GEM.

The initial trough digging into the West on Christmas day is a bit further west on the 18z. SE ridge is also a bit further west and stronger.

12z GEM ensemble mean is much closer to the GFS/Euro solution...so close, but the ridge is just a little too far east and progressive. Still time for this to improve as we get closer, of course. You don't get a -EPO signal much stronger than this.

The latest trend in the models in the mid range is to still tank the EPO, but not the AO. And going back and forth on the PNA (the 0z runs really wanted to tank it, Euro/GEM especially, today not quite as much).

Great improvement for the 0z runs tonight. Models have really been struggling as they often do with an incoming pattern change, but hopefully we'll start seeing some consistency with this improved trend. Notable improvements coming in the believable 3-6 day range with tonight's runs, that's the important part.

It's currently raining, something you don't see often in December here.

I agree. What's important are the changes in days 3-6. Beyond that...we've all been reminded recently how poor the models can be days 7+.

Go with whatever model spits out the best run! Duh.

Both versions of GFS are looking better. Too bad that mega-low isn't 200 mi further west...

Jim no likey.