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AbbyJr

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Everything posted by AbbyJr

  1. AbbyJr
    Major improvements on the Euro ensembles: Sorry the GIFS did not sync correctly. For some reason, one starts playing before the other.
  2. AbbyJr
    Major improvements on the Euro: GEM looks very similar:
  3. AbbyJr
  4. AbbyJr
    Do you see any signs of a SSW event in the near future?
  5. AbbyJr
    If I recall, Brett Anderson said that a lack of high latitude blocking was the reason the historically cold winter he predicted for 2011/2012 out West busted. Of course, in mid January we had a brief blast major arctic cold, but the cold never locked in for any meaningful length of time as Brett had initially predicted. If my memory is correct, he said the culprit was a lack of high attitude blocking, which he failed to take into account in his winter forecast.
  6. AbbyJr
    So what you are saying is that without a SSW to dislodge the TPV, this winter is likely a bust for the PNW? Even the east won't see any meaningful arctic air under this pattern.
  7. AbbyJr
  8. AbbyJr
    Tonights GEM is close to handing out goody bags. Only a few minor adjustments needed for this turn into a major arctic blast into the PNW.
  9. AbbyJr
    You are so smart. I'm impressed Always enjoy your insights.
  10. AbbyJr
    Do we need a +QBO at 30 mb for help in getting arctic air into the PNW?
  11. AbbyJr
    Did this not come to fruition? I've understood we are currently in a -QBO though this article states a +QBO was likely to persist through out winter. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2019/06/positive-qbo-set-to-strengthen-polar.html
  12. AbbyJr
    What exactly is a flat ridge compared to a regular ridge?
  13. AbbyJr
    The CMC Ensemble looks very similar to the Euro:
  14. AbbyJr
    Improvements on the Euro ensembles. While there is still a +EPO signal, there is also a -PNA signal shown. A few tweaks to the EPO and this could turn into an arctic pattern for the PNW. I also like that the trough has been trending west from previous runs. In any case, its better than the persistent split flow regime we've had to endure for so long.
  15. AbbyJr
    Where can I see the individual ensemble members? I have WeatherBELL but can't find them. Just see the deterministic or the mean.
  16. AbbyJr
    That's ridiculous. This is a weather enthusiast hobby forum. Its not a page the public pays any attention too and if they do, its their fault for not consulting the official NWS forecasts. Lock down a community weather hobby forum? You've got to be kidding me.
  17. AbbyJr
  18. AbbyJr
    If only that ridge would amplify...
  19. AbbyJr
    What makes you think that? What pieces are in place or what reason do you have to believe the pieces will fall into place if they haven't already?
  20. AbbyJr
    December and January 1990/1991 would be my preference but February 1989 was also good. All three would be nice But at this point, any of the three is wishcasting.
  21. AbbyJr
    So when do we actually get our winter arctic blast in the PNW and SW BC do you think? If ever? Models do not look promising at all right now.
  22. AbbyJr
    And what do we need for that to happen? Perhaps a strong SSW?
  23. AbbyJr
    Haven't posted here in a while. Hey so all those out west, what do you think needs to happen to get a strong -PNA and -EPO? We need our winter!
  24. AbbyJr
    PM me with your username from the old forum and I will give you the link to the new page.
  25. AbbyJr
    Yeah, so we are using the new page, at least for now so login there
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