The Snowman

Incredible work by the Nebraska crew reeling this one in by sheer willpower; we've done good!

Winter Weather Advisory for Omaha now has 3-5" and up to 0.25" ice, instead of 3-6" snow and up to 0.10" ice. Updated OAX graphics attached.

Am I missing something that happened? These 12z runs suddenly seem pretty generous for eastern Nebraska, even if they are the usual over-amped suspects

R.I.P. to the DGEX, speaking of NAM-related inaccuracies...

0z NAM through Hour 51

If you want to get nitpicky about it, one could argue tonight's 00z runs will have a smidge of data from our main disturbance sampled. Nothing material until tomorrow of course but we're getting ever closer...

As it stands for Omaha: NWS: 3-6" GFS: 7" GFS ENS: 6" Parallel GFS: 5" ECMWF: 5" ECMWF ENS: 6" CMC: 5" CMC ENS: 3" UKMET: 6" With a total range somewhere in the ballpark of 0-20"

Parallel GFS

Latest NWS Omaha thinking...

GFS looks like it's going to tick west again with the way it's a little faster to have the trough tilt negative

Looks like NWS Hastings and North Platte coordinated for theirs, NWS Omaha not ready to pull the trigger just yet

Point-and-click is back to all snow instead of a snow-mix combo, clearly the strategy has paid off

Maybe if we wish for rain we can trick the storm into dumping snow across the state!

Point-and-click forecast has a wintry mix Tuesday with a high of 31 ... not super excited about the prospect of ice or sleet

GFS ENS have gradually raised totals in Omaha over the last four runs, from 5" to somewhere inside the 8" realm. GFS itself has hovered around 7-9" for the last few runs ... nothing material to speak of, just interesting that the model which started out as one of the most lackluster for the Omaha area (a few days back when the ECMWF still had >12" totals) is now arguably leading the charge for highest totals. Weird storm.

ECMWF will tick south

Parallel GFS... been a while since Omaha's gotten any >6" love from this one

NWS Omaha's first take

First call 3"

NWS Omaha

I do not envy the folks at the NWS or WPC in the slightest at this moment

FWIW, while our main energy is still offshore, the second piece to this puzzle - the energy that will eventually dive south from Canada - is being ingested to a degree via Alaska's RAOB network. Whether that will actually make a difference in the end is, of course, the big question.

Only solution I think we're missing from the plethora that models have spit out is the Day After Tomorrow outcome

So at this point I believe Omaha is in a 0-20" range still, maybe if we're lucky we can cut that down to a 3-17" range the day before this thing starts!

0z ECMWF EPS, more or less merely expands the 6" shield and bolsters totals a bit