The Snowman

Radar returns re-intensifying as they rotate down through eastern Nebraska; snowing essentially sideways at this point, really pretty to watch

Absolutely no clue how much we've gotten just west of downtown, lol. Some spots with not even a flake accumulated due to wind, some spots with >2 foot drifts.

don't like the radar look for Omaha

Well I guess if you're gonna commit to one model, you better commit to the bitter end lol

18z GFS continuing a lovely recent trend of strengthening QPF field in Nebraska and Iowa

Also strange: if OAX (and most all models, for that matter) are correct in ratios landing somewhere between 15:1 and 18:1, why is NBM going with 8.8" of snow just north of Omaha from 0.71" QPF (ratio of just above 12:1)?

This makes little sense to me - essentially taking 10:1 maps and calling it a day. NWS Omaha expecting much higher ratios though, with their fresh AFD:

Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro.

12z models coming in really awesome for Omaha, taking most of them verbatim it would be an easy 6-8" for the metro, and then of course the higher-end hi-res models breach 12". Can't wait to see OAX's update.

Alright, so Omaha's outlook now sits as... 00z NAM (Kuchera): 12.0" 00z NAM (10:1): 7.4" 00z NAM 3km (Kuchera): 4.7" 00z NAM 3km (10:1): 2.8" 00z RGEM (Kuchera): 11.2" 00z RGEM (10:1): 6.7" 00z ICON (10:1): 6.9" 00z GFS (Kuchera): 6.8" 00z GFS (10:1): 3.4" 00z GEM (Kuchera): 12.5" 00z GEM (10:1): 6.8" ... Post-00z NBM: 4.5" ... Flowers: 5.5" Strange to me, even accounting for any snow crystal degradation due to wind, that forecasts would come in so firmly below the Kuchera average of 9.4", and even the 10:1 ratio average of 5.7". Edit: The above also implies local SLR of 16:1.

Ride or die

I guess it’s go-time from a models perspective… if the 0z suite keeps improving Nebraska totals, imagine OAX will follow suit in the overnight update… high stakes! Here we go!

Nice increase in QPF for Nebraska after a worrying 12z run.

Nice tidbit from Omaha AFD on why the NBM is too low:

Chicago absolutely buried on that Euro run (subtract ~4" from Cook/Lake/McHenry nexus area to account for today's event)