Indeed, if I predict there will be another goose-egg "winter" for Springfield this next winter, I indeed have a high-probability of being correct.
Odds of a dud are like -2000 moneyline right now for this location's 26-27 winter.
Always got weenie reacts from him for being realistic about the low chances of upcoming snow last winter. Was mentioning how we wouldn't get snow in January 2025, but the chances increase as we get closer to February (which ended up verifying). But no... we must be POSITIVE.
Although I got weenie reacts plenty of times this winter too. But, I was pretty much accurate the entire time besides being a bit too optimistic a couple times. I called out all the fake model pepto and pointed out when the real chances were coming in which we did in fact flirt with cold air (late Dec 2025 and mid Feb 2026).
It also just turns out that a basic human meteorological analysis is leagues better than whatever these garbage models show for the long range. Though the models are still useful tools to keep a watch on, and pick up on shorter term events.