Leaderboard

Nov 10th-20th seems like it could be the best period for the Plains to see some snow events that cut northeastward. Euro Weeklies also seeing a very wet November as the jet intensifies and El Nino symptoms begin to occur. You can get the feel that there is some sort of west coast/central trough that develops in November and the East Coast see's more ridging. Should be a nice pattern for alot of us to see storminess.

Same here or doing my best at it. Bias is human nature. We all have them. I won't even try to act like I don't like snow, because I do. I value folks opinions that have an opposite viewpoint to mine because they encourage me to learn why it could be seen that way. However, that being said,I can't change what the models and indices forecasts say. If they all said 'torch' I would have to agree. They dont. Most of all of my pure opinions will be prefaced with "I think" or some variety of that for the sake of clarity.

Wildest and coldest CFS run yet for folks in the Plains... certainly painting a stormy central CONUS from Nov thru Dec... December 1st... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/19/basis00/namk/weas/15120112_1900.gif Christmas Day... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/19/basis00/namk/weas/15122512_1900.gif

Euro Weeklies still showing the Aleutian Low coming alive and systems slamming the west coast towards the end of the month. November starts off stormy in the central CONUS through the 1st week of November. Following that, it's lining up with the CFSv2 and creating a storm track into the desert southwest around the 10th of November through the 20th. By mid November to about Thanksgiving week, I think we may be seeing a Winter type pattern as the NW NAMER ridge builds up and the jet continues to cut underneath into Cali. Thanksgiving week could get real cold early on. Something the CFS has been showing a lot lately as we get closer.

Where has has it expanded east??? Looks more central-based to me... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif Late August and in September westerlies made an attempt to push the warm waters east into ENSO 1.2 Region but failed. Warmest waters are near ENSO 3.4 & 3 Regions... http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/teleconnections/nino-regions.gif Definetely not ENSO 1.2 Region like '97/'98.

Same goes for a torchy Winter...there are those on here that are also wishcasting for a "torch" this Winter. 2 sides to the coin, but I'll speak for myself here and say that for the Dec-Mar period, other than the CFSv2, most global models are hinting at an active/cold winter from the Rockies to the East. Find me another model that disagrees besides the CFSv2. I'm just showing the model maps and putting my 2 cents on what they are illustrating and what bias or model error there may be.

Bring it on Tom! CFS is trying it's best to correct to the other models at 500mb also. If one were to take a blend of them all at this point in time, we have a wall to wall winter coming with continental polar air locked in over the central US. Low in a nice spot over the Aleutians, a +1 sigma PNA. It would be insane to see it all work out.