DSM WeatherNut

I was being loose on my post "About 4 inches in 2.5 hours in Des Moines. Been a while since I've seen those rates". it was more after 9. It could be possible.

About 4 inches in 2.5 hours in Des Moines. Been a while since I've seen those rates.

Balls out snowing here in Des Moines for the last 2 hours...adding up quickly.

Des Moines is consistently looking good almost every model run...maybe even better with each run.

I agree with that probaby at 4.5 to 5 in DSM with a nice band to wrap it up.

LOL, no kidding.

Also no "mix" as suggested by models. It a cold 14 degrees. I don't care what ya say when its that cold.

And a WWA just issued for our area, lol.

Snowing hard here in Des Moines...seems far more south and west by now casting. Just fast.

Back to decent snow fall rates in Des Moines...It doesn't want to quit. The northern deformation band looks like it may hang on for awhile.

Radar trends look pretty solid for Des Moines for a while. Still building to the west befor the CF in Nebraska pushes it out.

Snow beginning in Des Moines also...Let it snow!

Des Moines seems to sit on the line on near nothing to a lot way too much. Last 2 were ok, but so close but so far. lol

I like this model personal, but unfortunately it doesn't work that way.

I agree, but its a short distance between a lot an none and no model will ever be that accurate. Wait and see time.

That's what the latest DMX AFD points to. Also sounds like most of the snow will be out of the area by 3AM. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 401 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 401 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 Confidence: High on snow timing and occurrence, medium to high on amounts. Models showing some divergence in the strength of this system as it impacts the state today into tonight, with the northern trough taking some time to fully phase with the stronger southern trough. This creates a bit of a split in the heavier snow amounts across the forecast area with two main areas of concern for heavier amounts great than 6". The first heavier area likely across the northern third of the forecast area with more intense snowfall rates this morning as an area of snow spreads across the state this morning into the afternoon hours associated with an upper level shortwave currently over the western high plains into WY/SD/CO area. This wave will continue to traverse eastward across SD/NE today and become phased with the southern trough toward early this evening. Models indicating an area of frontogenesis stretching across the north central to northwest portions of Iowa this morning, with some elevated slantwise instability present above the lift layer. Therefore expecting a band of enhanced snowfall rates stretching from areas of northwest Iowa into north central Iowa from 15Z to 18Z and beginning to dissipate toward 21z. Therefore still expecting snowfall amounts into the 6 to 8 inch range across the northern few tiers of counties through late afternoon, with some additional very light accumulations still possible through the evening hours and snow tapering off late tonight. Further south and west, have the area situated between the northern heavier band and the surge of moisture northward associated with the southern system into the south central/southeastern forecast area this afternoon/evening. Therefore with some dry air to overcome and lighter snowfall rates expected between the two stronger areas of forcing, have trended snow amounts down especially across the west/central portions of the forecast area with 3-4 inches in the far west and around 4-6 inches in/around the DSM metro/Ames areas. However majority of that accumulating snowfall in the DSM metro will occur right around the afternoon commute timeframe with some possibly higher snowfall rates during that time. Therefore could still see travel disruptions with the short-lived heavier bursts of snow across central IA by mid/late afternoon into early evening. Across southern/southeastern/eastern portions of the forecast area again see a possibility of heavier snowfall into the 6 to 8+ range of snow with a strong surge of moisture northward into the state this afternoon ahead of the digging upper trough moving across the southern Plains today and into AR/Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday. Trowal feature to approach the southern forecast area and be firmly across northern MO. Again have another area of frontogenesis across the south/southeastern counties this afternoon, with some instability present aloft as well. Also have a very good cross-hair signature indicating strong lift within the dendritic zone around 21z-00z which should allow for more intense snowfall rates in that area again with the surging moisture. Again this is moving in around the evening commute timeframe, so travel impacts are very concerning.

This is beginning to look more realistic like the Euro

Thanks! Happy to find this. I finally found a forum with with more than one random Iowa poster.

Liking this and it looks like DMX is upping the totals that look more like this.

Started snowing in Des Moines about 15 mintues ago. Looked like it was going to take much longer to saturate because it pushed back south.