Meatyorologist

Darn, missed it!

I personally don't really care what they do with it. If they're putting that money into their bad habits, then that's X amount less money they 'have' to spend on their vices, and conversely X amount more they own; or will be able to allocate in the future; to spend on food and other necessities. It's none of my business what they do with the money I give them, it helps them out either way. Sometimes I toss around the idea that I'm enabling them. But I'm not their babysitter or their caretaker, and I'm not going to nurse them back up onto their feet, not that I realistically could even if I wanted to. The only power I have in their lives is easing their current situation by any amount I can... Though I don't give out cash when I'm strapped for it. That's reckless and I need to look out for myself. As for @MR.SNOWMIZER and his story... Good on ya for taking on that POS scammer. It's one thing to be down on your luck, or even be down on your luck and in too screwed up a mindset to want to fix your life. But it's a completely different animal to exploit the empathy of good, hardworking people, and sour the reputation of others in your situation with real integrity. I know he managed to run off but I'm sure that experience gave him pause to maybe quit doing that in the future. At the very least he's one reason closer.

Crazy. Clear upward trend but an all time Jan low smacked right in the middle of it. Some stations in central Montana broke their old records by 10F. That state has been on fire (for lack of a better term) this century.

Take a shot!

In his defense, it's a pretty wonky variation of the same pattern he was describing. Heights try to build over AK, but the encroaching AL/STJ just won't let it strengthen to the proportions necessary to force deep Arctic air into the region. The only difference in the pattern is the local details east of 150°W. Longwave ridging is just a smidge more amplified, maybe due to the MJO stalling in phase seven (I have no idea how those two are related, but I see that connection thrown around a lot), or maybe due to small, tricky twists in the details guided by random luck; probably a mix of both. Ironically, if the ridging were more amplified, we'd probably be under its main axis relishing in the splendors of the tail end of the inversion season, or perhaps diving into our second heatwave of the year; rather than watching that minor trough dig out over Washington like a microwave dinner blast. Either way it's a fluky outcome and I'm surprised the Euro has now gone with it for two consecutive runs. If the pattern does come to fruition, talk about a way to make the most out of some truly bleak fundamentals. Aside from the torching of December and late January, we've managed to scrape by with some efficiently gathered cold anomalies despite an onslaught of abysmal weather patterns; the inversions in November and the immaculate January cold snap being the two shining examples of this unlikely season. For a strong El Niño and a promised 'off year', we've come away fairly unscathed, with normal amounts of precipitation for most of the lowlands. The only issue we've really dealt with has been a paltry mountain snowpack, which was to be expected given the ENSO state, and still has a few months to recover.

Gotta love a 25000ft LCL

Oh no dude I got your point about the terrain and sfc convergence over the eastern seaboard. I just didn't know the Sahara wasn't fully mixed. My comment was specifically about the Sahara

I see ENSO transition or lack thereof thrown around here a lot as a statistically significant signifier for seasonal speculation (huh), but I'm not so sure it really means anything. What probably matters more are the basic fundamentals at play regardless of what happened the season prior. And with -ENSO, +QBO, and our forum's very own Strat-o-Warmer, I think next winter has some promise. Note how each major cold snap has gotten more and more harsh with time since February 2019...

Phil says that will accelerate global warming by 0.03644°C because La Niña is an endothermic process

Interesting stuff, though to add an asterisk I'd hardly call the Sahara "capped." The majority of the desert is useless dry air all the way up and down the column. Large swaths of the desert possess a fully mixed profile. Though that could be a seasonal thing, I'm not sure. Perhaps low level moisture is advected north when the Savannas are in their wet season, or maybe Mediterranean moisture is advected south during NH winter, again I'm not sure.

2024-25 is gonna be lit

If late Feb/early March scores I'm singlehandedly crediting you.

I think the air aloft would be too warm, and thunderstorms would never initiate. Just my two cents though and Phil probably has a few reasons to support the opposite idea...

Holy crap Jim, you may be willing this one into existence

If anything bothered to convect in such an environment! The eastern seaboard might be subject to Dubai-fication with torrid sfc conditions and an EML to cap it all nice and safely on the ground

Still not too late to build a massive, eight mile high brick wall on the dateline, divvying the Pacific in two. We could make the blocking ourselves...

forgot to lower my volume because I was listening to music. had the knob cranked above 80%

At least our cold/snow teleconnections are aligned with negative temperature anomalies down there as well. Much more satisfying!

(Hazmat suits necessary)

Man, that 00z GFS really had me thinking about gender issues and border control

You keep nailing it, unfortunately. Even back in November you were warning of a dud down there.

Thank you

Breathtaking

Imagine...