GobBluth

My maps are poor resolution - how deep does it have the low in the Bering Sea at 240 hr?

CMC is completely different than the GFS operational from Saturday forward - showery pattern with highs under 70

Details?

May need the winds to relax in Portland to get the temps up much further - up only 2 degrees since the 12:20 report.

the winds will cap the highs downtown and east, but the downsloping off the west hills is going to inflate the west side highs.

The range of temps across the Portland area is crazy. 82 in Troutdale and 58 in Beaverton

areas west of portland are 102-103 with downsloping off the west hills.

Appears the Portland metro is going to overachieve on temps today - surprise surprise. Think with 850s only getting hotter tomorrow that 105 could be in reach.

It looks like the pattern that gave us ridgy hell all last summer.

portland has a pattern of overachieving on highs the last couple years

The smoke from the house fire up near Bethany is putting a cap on the warming. The winds are also going to get moving this afternoon further complicating.

NWS is still forecasting Friday as having the strongest winds, but we get to 103. The well mixed air mass is hot top to bottom. Nights around 60 should feel like a pleasant reprieve.

Ensembles support my preferred weather so it must be correct.

What's the GFS picking up on that the other models are missing? eta - disregard, you answered already.

06 GFS looks much better for the crash early next week

back to talking about weather... what's the consensus on the forecasts for this weekend? the 850s peak just as winds are the strongest, so perhaps a cap on temps on Saturday?

100s probably off the table.

When did that change? It's bizarre running a loop.

the new gfs is attempting a ridge retrogression.

Not faulting KGW for going to their temps as some models would suggest it, but I think it looks way out of the realm of possibility as we get later into August. It's as unlikely as getting a sub 20 degree high in late February. Possible, but we're talking very unusual. Referring to the 104 in particular..

They're contractually required to issue at least five per summer so they're in catch up mode, regardless of actual temps.

12z cmc is all in for full retrogression next week.

06 seemed to modify a couple days of heat compared to the 00.

It looks very borderline depending on when the low departs and the next one arrives - could easily see the euro backing off in future runs.

Come on now, not that crazy.