GobBluth

We go from a long term snow/cold solution to a classic El Nino signal. Is anyone really that surprised?

Maybe in southern and eastern Oregon; it seems plenty moist in NW Oregon after the past three weeks.

I'd hope the long term 12z doesn't come to pass - that would only cause the Blob to strengthen again.

Euro going the most bullish on valley rain/mountain snow day 5+? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/test8.gif

GFS looks active, ECMWF is getting ridgy all over again. If this was a lame ESPN segment I'd buy ECMWF and sell GFS.

+1 and amen.

What's the takeaway with this - better oceanic support in 1997 for stronger storms?

12z CMC showing remains from Kevin into southern california next Thursday

Shockingly thin skin.

GFS has a difficult enough time being accurate within 10 days.

I'm mentally prepared for the storm to underperform the models as it has for nearly the last year.

That's the kind of pattern that blows up the blob.

Brutal, unless it completely cuts off it could lead to a more dynamic trough in the long range.

There's a late summer/early fall El Nino signal?

The GEM was the first to catch onto the November cold snap.

The band just came through and dropped us down. Odd.

Temps slowly climbing in Beaverton. 30.0

That line looks stalled just north of Salem.

Great reading material.

today the blog comments actually make sense and aren't racist nonsense.

That band is sticking right along the Columbia river - SW Washington may be the surprising winner...

With low after low staying sufficiently south to keep the lower levels cold. This is textbook.

Rpm looks much too quick of a warm up.

Shouldn't we be able to track the low in real time at this point?

I give the NWS a lot of credit for being frank with the confusing set up: .UPDATE....GETTING A BIT MORE NERVOUS THAT THE NORTHWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMING IN WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AGAIN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM STILL KEEP THE FOCUS SOUTH. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN HOW THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NOW ITS GOING OFFSHORE AND OPENING THE DOOR TO VORT MAXES TO ITS SOUTH. WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WONT SNOW IN THE VALLEY TOMOORROW...AND WE SAW THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS HOW EASY IT WAS TO RING OUT FLURRIES OUT OF WEAK FORCING. ABOUT THE BEST MESSAGE I CAN PUT OUT NOW IS...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS ARE LOW. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOUTH BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. I WISH I COULD BE MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT. /KMD