GobBluth

He's going with Charles III. September in Portland averages less than 2 inches of rain which can be easily attained in the last week of the month. That was never going to happen with the expansive SW ridge and that's gone after Sunday.

There was very little model support for rain next week.

Not much of a strong ridge next week but the jet is having difficulty consolidating into anything meaningful. Pretty typical September.

44 in Beaverton this morning. Glorious.

All the models in agreement that this weekend is the final flex of the 4 corners high

Hot take - the 95-97 high Portland gets on Saturday will be the most comfortable hot temp of the summer, if the east winds materialize.

Doing a three day trip to San Diego early next week. Being in the throes of a tropical storm wasn't on my bingo card.

GFS much faster with breakdown of ridge by Monday.

Through Friday GFS looks more logical with the temps. Whole 850 map is suppressed slightly south.

GFS doubles down on the heat and goes even more nuts, while GEM has collapsed the ridge by Saturday night.

More GFS chaos. Euro is in fine tuning mode.

Slightly- looks like a few ensembles went towards the 00 operational torch option and skewed the mean.

06 looks nothing like the 00 goof.

How can they improve on perfection?

CMC joins the heat parade late next week.

Goofus doing goofus things late next week

Interseasonal transitions commence Saturday?

Not all "ridgys" are the same - the 18z continues the theme of at very least a progressive pattern - no more cut offs building up a ridge with quick transport of desert heat into the NW.

Portlands making a strong run at 100 again on Tuesday.

GFS is not going to let go of the ridge next week.

Meandering cut off offshore would fit the pattern of the last month or so.

September in particular can feature dry troughs and a strong onshore flow that still can burn off in the afternoon for a pleasant day. Harder to pull that off in October without some rainfall.

Impressive surge of hot air from California but negative 850s aren't terribly far away.

What's the state of the western Pacific tropics? Seems any sort of pattern change out there could assist in kicking down the static western US ridge.

The rare midday marine push. Usually delays until after peak heating hours in Portland.