Andie

The storm season is getting underway and the Gulf is certainly warm enough to support a hurricane. While this storm will likely remain a TS, we're on our way. ___________________ A Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Will Likely Form in the Gulf of Mexico; Here's What We Know https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-07-05-tropical-disturbance-gulf-of-mexico-southeast-coast At a Glance A broad area of low pressure has emerged over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is an area where July tropical storms have formed in the past. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next couple of days. The future track and intensity of this potential tropical system remain a bit uncertain. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding is a threat along the northern Gulf Coast, dependent on the exact track.

Keeping good thoughts for you guys up there. This has been a seriously tough year for farmers and residents. Stay Safe.

This area of heavy rain has been just sitting there all afternoon W of DFW area raining like crazy while we get drizzle and thunder. Nice atmosphere but very little of the wet stuff. :/

Not a big rain event so far, but nice clouds. I find. It interesting when I get to see the clear blue sky peek through the clouds. It's reassuring to know that behind all that active weather, there's clear blue waiting for us. Makes me want to jump through the hoop.

After reaching 93* today, a line of showers are moving across he state. Sitting at 83* right now, rain. Nice change from the heat.

The aerial shows not only the crack formed, but the subsidence of the land.

NASA's Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

There is also the Jan. 1994 Northridge quake in LA which is in the minds of many. CalTech is saying there's an 11% chance of a larger quake in a week. Not sure how the calculate this, but we'll see. Aftershocks are up to 3000 and will continue indefinitely. It's said the entire area is on pins and needles.

Well, the big San Francisco quake was 1906. SA moves about every 200 yrs. The one everyone is freaking about may be in the future by decades. But that doesn't mean the area won't see some moderate to servere Shakes before the Fault finally lets go. I think the so called big one will have numerous pre-quakes that will alert scientists. I'd be surprised if it just went off at 8.0+ out of the blue.

Dr. Lucy Jones of CalTech is weighing in on the likelihood that the San Andreas Fault could become involved in this quake event. The San Andreas has a major event over 7.0 about every 200 years. This, however, doesn't rule out lesser moderate quakes. Currently all of Southern California is on edge as aftershocks will continue for quite some time. All of the Valley is interlaced with numerous smaller faults which could move as a result, so the big one isn't the main worry currently. Major movement was felt from Las Vegas to Bakersfield to LA. Seismograph of the July 4th, 2019 Searles Valley quake

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-aftershocks-ridgecrest-earthquake-20190705-story.html Cal Tech is now saying aftershocks will last months if not years. I haven’t heard WHY this fault line merits that opinion but it will be interesting to learn.

High of 93 today. Humidity 43% makes it quite tolerable. Currently a 50% chance of rain with some heavier storms scattered in the line. The next week will be in the high 90’s. So, summer is well and truly here.

Large secondary quakes are usually expected by seismologists. Dr.Lucy Jones, a seismologist fron Cal Tech is predicting another large aftershock. 6.9 is possible, but. 5.0 is almost assured. There have been 1700 aftershocks and the area is understandably nervous. The area has been plagued with fires, road damage, buildings damages beyond repair. It's just a very small taste of what a 8.0+ might do to the great LA Area. The big question has yet to be addressed by authorities as to the chances of these quakes affecting San Andreas. Sometimes I think these big quakes ring like a bell and it is hard to say where the stress goes. I'm still concerned about the Cascades. These quakes may not have any bearing at all, but the Cascades are long overdue.

Ive been reading a good deal from climatologists. Yes they disagree but US models have come under scrutiny for being scewed lately. I still think the overall trend is cooler. We will have warm Autumns and hot as hell summers but generally winters will be hard. Yes, I do know that weather is not climate.

USGS just reported a 7.1 preliminary near Searle’s at Ridgecrest. Details are developing. It was preceded by a 5.1.

It ain't over. There could be more quakes near the 6.4 on the 4th of July

How quickly conditions change. Texas will be joining the heat with Heat Indexes at 100*+. We can't complain, it's been an awesome spring and early summer. AND the summer may not be long. High today 96*. Tomorrow 99*. The farmers will be happy and that's not a bad thing.

Garlock Fault sits at 90* to San Andreas. San Andreas is moving both north and south. When you add a Fault intersecting at 90* to one side of the SA Fault, you begin to dynamically transfer stress. Also, sometimes a massive quake is preceeded by 1-3 earlier strong quakes. We don't know what we don't know and there is the danger. Could the July 4th quake be a signal that San Andreas is becoming dangerously strained and will slip near LA ? All residents can do is prepare to bug out if the time comes. ____________________________________ July 4th earthquake won’t delay the Big One. And it might have worsened quake strain https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-did-california-earthquake-relieve-earthquake-stress-20190705-story.html "It actually probably made things worse for parts of some faults in that region, said earthquake scientists Ross Stein and Volkan Sevilgen, writing on their blog at Temblor.net. The two wrote that they believe that parts of three other faults — in remote areas of California — were actually “brought closer to failure by the 4th July quake.” And in fact, they wrote, the area hit by Thursday’s quake likely became loaded with more seismic strain after two previous temblors — the 1872 Owens Valley and the 1992 Landers earthquakes." ___________________________________ https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/07/05/california-earthquake-map-shows-unusual-number-of-aftershocks/ This quake has resulted in an unusually high number of aftershocks 2.5+ More expected.

Aftershocks remain fairly strong and there will be hundreds, if not thousands, before it settles down. This was the lasrgest quake in 20 yrs in California. M3.65 14km W of Searles Valley, CA 19 minutes ago M4.09 15km W of Searles Valley, CA 36 minutes ago M3.26 12km WSW of Searles Valley, CA 50 minutes ago M3.25 17km W of Searles Valley, CA 2 hours ago M3.05 15km W of Searles Valley, CA 2 hours ago M3.44 16km NNE of Ridgecrest, CA 2 hours ago M5.36 16km W of Searles Valley, CA 2 hours ago M3.54 8km ESE of Ridgecrest, CA 2 hours ago

This is the ground reacting to today's quake. Classified as Moderate to Severe, it was listed as 5.4 mi. Deep. This shallow depth insured that the intensity was felt over a wide area. Seismographs picked it up as far as Pennsylvania.

We clocked in at 94* today. Rather hot. Humdity 45%......amazing Dewpoint 74* Not bad. The evening will be a knockout!

Throw on a sun lamp and grab a beer Phil! Have a great 4th !

It's not so bad here. You can work on your tan! Articles have spoken of 31 of the 32 models being tweeted to reveal what the US govt wants it to say, and that the Russian model is more realistic. I've come to not throw all my faith in the govts assessment as it's been shown to be wrong. So, I do believe we will see colder years ahead. I just hope the severity isn't too bad. I like eating and farmers like to farm.

People from Las Vegas to the Pacific Coast reported feeling a rolling motion that shook shower doors and made hanging dining room light sway. Roadshave been reported as damaged and fires reported. This has been the largest quake in southern Calif. since 1999. Still developing. 50+ aftershocks so far. That is expected to continue.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/significant-earthquake-rattles-california A 6.4 earthquake rattled Searles Valley today along Garlock Faultline which runs 90* out from the San Andreas fault. The quake was accompanied by several lower quakes prior to the 6.4 and numerous quakes after. No injuries have been reported but it was felt widely throughout the area. Many geologists have been anticipating a larger quake in the area.