Mi_Matthew

^^^ #15 please. I wouldn't ask the snow gods for any other favors for at least three seasons!

Good stuff Tom. I'm liking the look of the operational ECMWF the next ten days. Storm track just to the south of the lower lakes could be big for us. The GFS is off its rocker, IMO. The Plains will get their cutters but I think they're still at least a few weeks away.

GRR was not alone, DTX also upping accumulations but I still think the forecast is too low (up to 1" for MBY). Score one for the GGEM/RGEM!

Snow started here. Hopefully it will stay snow as the radar returns on the west side of MI push through, they look like they mean business. Jaster, snow over there?

Both 12z RGEM and GGEM keep hope alive for a few inches of snow before the switch to rain, even for southern MI. More mayhem inside 36 hours or just toss it?

Canadian came in snowier as well.

FWIW, the NAVGEM continues with the suppressed route, similar to the track of the last storm. I never paid attention to it until it was mentioned in a post a few days ago. Who knows, maybe I shouldn't pay attention to it now either!

Almost here for me! Hopefully it comes through with the same vigor!

Tom, you think this thing is going to follow the more recent weaker and SE trend or are all the indices that appear to be going against us going to send this way NW like the ICON has been suggesting?

Went to downtown Detroit this morning to try and score Rage Against the Machine tix. Beautiful scene on my drive down with large flakes flying. Can't remember the last time I saw downtown in daylight in snow, probably the auto show several (10+) years ago. Anyways, I did get some good tickets, show is in July, what a difference it will be buying the tix vs. going to the show! I'm holed up at a local brewery now waiting on the developing squall to the west.

Some pixie dust is breaking through the wall over here. Started avout 5 minutes ago.

Whoa. Oh, Canada!

I've given up on heaviest snows with the southern wave but I believe the wild card will be the pivot of the northern steam wave for southern MI. That wave continues to look potent, throw in Lake Michigan moisture and potential long residence time, somebody here will do well. Looks like the 06z GFS was hinting at this. Jaster, your backyard maybe?

Not just because of the HRRR posted above but my gut says this one will be on the lower end of the forecasts in southern MI. Unfavorable low track (to our north) and moisture getting pinched off as the low occludes to our west. I am hoping for 2" from the WAA band, which may be thumping for a couple hours, but the dynamics are weakening as it moves through. Add to that dry slot concerns and I'm hedging low. Still thrilled about keeping the snowy day streak alive though! Looking like 6 in a row with snow.

I am at my job in Birmingham, MI. Pounding right now. 2" of fluff so far in less than 90 minutes.

GRR mentioned the HRRRX (specifically about it outperforming the HRRR wrt to LES) in their late morning update AFD, anybody know what it is & where to find products? Edit: Found out it is an experimental HRRR. Maybe only available internally...

I am interested in it's movement, only because I believe it represents the western barrier of sorts to how far the system snow from down south can make it later. Unless of course the low down south were to bomb out and become negatively tilted (not gunna happen). I for one am hoping it slows/stalls it's eastward push. Edit: Reflectivities are indeed increasing to our SSW again. You got it right buddy, at the very least an interesting overnight to watch evolve.

Very nice! I think they were gun shy about issuing a WWA after last night, but I feel it would verify in St. Clair, Sanilac and even Macomb Counties.

I think we'll make it. And hopefully it is the start of a lengthy snowcover streak.

This is far from a great storm as far as totals are concerned, but I for one am mesmerized by watching all the pieces/factors at play in the national radar loop. Pure lake effect squalls in NE IL, lake enhancement here in my homestate, blossoming deformation "leaf" down south, and some showers in north-central TN that are moving nearly perpendicular to the stratiform precip shield (I haven't figured those out yet, lol). Love it.

I measured 1.8" on the deck and 2" even on the grass just now. Nice to see flakes flying on consecutive days, btw. If we can squeeze out a flurry or snow shower on Saturday we'll very likely have 5 (edit: 6, Sunday's storm should go after midnight) calendar days in a row with flakes!!!

I think it's tied more to embedded shortwave moving NNE through western PA. Definitely could be some influence from Huron/Saginaw Bay with the NE flow though. But yeah, may diminish some, seems like the deformation bands like to "jump" rather than advance in any cardinal direction.

Sign me up for both!

Kzoo under some hefty returns, hope they make it to your backyard, Jaster!