Mi_Matthew

Looks like the second wave is becoming more influencial for us locally. Sure would like to see the trend back towards a grand finale of wave 3 but that is looking less likely.

Fascinating subject for sure. My only issue is what I think a lot of people lose sight of is that we are just as much a part of nature as any creature or plant that has claimed this beautiful blue rock as home. We may know more in some areas, less in others. I believe what has been proven is that evolution/survival is purely a reactionary instinct, not one of prediction. Point in the end is, no matter how much firewood I predict I would need for a winter, doesn't the caterpillar make the same assessment of the information presented to it as to how wooly it will need to be? And what says the info presented to any creature in the fall is correct? We see nature fail prematurely in the spring constantly. I don't expect you to answer all or any of these questions. I just like discussion.

Not doubting you, I'm here to learn after all, please elaborate on nature's signals that year. Edit: Feel free to elaborate in a different thread if needed.

Yep. GFS may have found company.

Not to me. I need my seasons. All in due time.

I can't even defend it anymore. You're on your own GFS! Unless you're right...

Haha! It's a Macomb County conspiracy snow! Depends on exactly where I measure but anywhere from 0.5" on cement up to 1.5" on elevated surfaces.

NAM trending north with the first wave over last few runs. The globals that suppress the first wave are much more amped with second or third. Just taking a guess that the NAM would fall into the suppressed 2nd/3rd wave camp.

Kinda surprised not even a special weather statement out of DTX for this. Oh well.

Over achieving big time right now. Looks like another hour or two of moderate snow to go. We just might make a couple inches out of this. In addition, it looks like the WAA band is coming together nicely east of MSP, that could be another nice overnight bonus.

Yet another thread the needle event and right now we're holding the needle in SEMI, sure hope this holds.

Catch 'em on your tongue fatties flying here now but the only place they're sticking is old snow piles.

Radar trends are our friend! On a side note, got to experience an actual sunrise this morning! Haven't seen one of those in a while.

Biggest takeaway from today for me is, right or wrong, the GFS is once again showing far more consistency than the Euro.

To be fair, we dunno what the Ukie does after 144. It for sure shows way more snow in MO than the Euro, what that portends elsewhere is still a mystery.

Yeah, 00Z guidance is ECMWF furthest north now with GFS as a compromise between ECMWF and CMC/ICON, which were the most amped prior to the last few runs.

Might not be the best example but this event was most memorable. Certainly a surprise snow though. I'm certain Niko remembers this one last year. Snow started right around sunset, got INTENSE shortly thereafter. DTX radar was down for a portion of the storm which really downplays how hard it was snowing, easily 2" if not 3" per hour, something not seen around here very often. https://www.weather.gov/dtx/snow190217 Right place, right time I guess, but that was my favorite snow of last season, if not the last several seasons.

To something you mentioned earlier about daytime heating fizzling out your snow, I've been wondering for quite some time now if a low level nocturnal jet is also a factor in a lot of these micro/mesoscale features. I have no data to back it up...but it sure seems like it is a real thing.

Fair enough. I should've emphasized the south/east trend of ICON/CMC.

Might just be the craft beer talking but I think this over achieves, even with marginal temps. Plus, most models showing a band of WAA snow pre-dawn Sunday. Granted it will be gone late afternoon.

Clinton hopes not! Would love to see past 144 hours....looks like it really digs the second (third?) wave.

Indeed, and of course after I praised model agreement the 00Z Canadian is way less amped with all waves. Oddly enough it is lockstep with the ICON. Went from rainer a few runs ago to mostly a miss to the south.

We'll see where the CMC and Euro come in tonight, but there is pretty darn good agreement this far out now that GFS is onboard with amped secondary. Always leary of being in a bullseye at 5 days out, but the envelope seems to be converging for once.

I've been keeping an eye on it too. If it weren't for marginal surface temps I could see this being a low end advisory this side of the state.

Well that sure looks like a familiar outcome for those of us in the lower lakes. Sigh. Persistence, ride it.