Gradient Keeper

00z GFS cold trough is several notches further west than 12z. Thickness a bit lower and Sub -0c 850s holds over us a bit longer. Model comparison - Tuesday 11 PM 00z and now 12z

That's just great. I just put away my snow shovel. Oh well. How many days until Winter 2020 starts? 444 days. That's right. We have 444 days to try to heal from the butt hurt that was the great Winter Cancel of 2019-2020. 00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

12z Euro out in 10 hours, 35 minutes and 40* seconds.

00z ECMWF definitely cooler 850mb Temp anomaly Day 5 Day 6

100% agreed. What is occurring now is nothing we've ever seen in previous generations. 12z NAM in 7 hours 5 minutes

00z GEM Day 5 bit cooler than the GFS with the Canadian trough sagging south a bit more. In response to this thickness drop below 534 over PDX.

In my experiences the past roughly 4-5 years I've found that there are good and reasonable liberals, conservatives, independents, centrists, libertarians, whom you can discuss a myriad of topics with and even if you do not see eye-to-eye on everything, you leave the discussion or debate with civility often on mutual ground, or you respectfully agree to disagree. However, there are absolutely no good or reasonable regressive leftists and progressives. Not a single one. If there is disagreement they are terribly uncivil resorting to insults, name calling, lies, slander, and have no sense of sanity, rationality, common sense, nor morals or values while subjugating their own twisted version of morality upon everyone. Leftists are a plague. Back to weather! 00z GFS Day 5 500mb Height Anomaly Look like the cold Canadian trough is a touch further west as it slides southward before quickly scooting southeastward.

When we were growing up the 'left' or whatever we call them the sane Democrat party weren't anything like now. Now they are regressive leftists radicalized by socialism and communism. They are intentionally ignoring everyone's constitutional and individual rights as if we didn't have a constitution at all, which is what they want. God forbid they ever gain total power in our country we are beyond doomed. We need a complete overhaul of our universities and education system. Any professor, dean, board member, faculty or teacher who teaches wrong-think thought police tactics not allowing free speech or the exchange of ideas must be abolished removed immediately. Once we can accomplish that(and maybe I'm crazy, but I know we can), only then can we begin to reverse this new destructive ideology. We must remove this new era of activism in our society too. Through harassment, threats, and intimidation they have been allowed to throw their weight around influencing everything from politics to sports now. 6z GFS in 5 hours 5 minutes

I just read the blog posting. Uhhh. Yeah. Really scary. This is what happens when people turn the weather/climate science into a cult religion and that's exactly what it is. Insanity. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 33 minutes

18z GFS Ensembles for PDX a bit colder yet mean temp -2c. Past 4 runs centered at 5 AM Wednesday have seen the thickness plummet from 546, now forecast to 534. I wonder if 00z continues this with the mid-week trough next week. Hmmm.... 00z GFS in 16 minutes 00z GEM in 39 minutes 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 34 minutes Go CHIEFS!

Not a great deal to look at or rather to post about.... I don't think

12:34 AM Temp 46.5, breezy east wind near West Gresham. The east wind has increased noticeably. I've only experienced easterlies overnight in September a few times, but that pattern was always with a thermal trough west of the Coast Range and a very warm air mass. It wasn't with a cold "arctic" trough and strong high pressure sliding down the Rockies giving us a chilly offshore flow. That's for sure. Speaking of that. This MIGHT be another first for September. Crown Point just hit 50mph at 12:02 AM. I thought this was worth mentioning anyway.

Congratulations!

Yep. We would have had the arctic front draped right over us. Heck of a snow storm. 00z GFS in 5 hours 55 minutes

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE, WA0100 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2019...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET IN SPOKANE WA......RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET IN SPOKANE WA...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.72 INCHES WAS SET AT THE SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.67 SET IN 1962.**A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.9 INCHES WAS SET AT THE SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL RECORDED ON THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN SPOKANE BEGINNING IN JANUARY OF 1881. THIS SNOWFALL TOTAL ALSO BESTS THE PREVIOUS MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 1.4 INCHES SET DURING A ONE DAY SNOW EVENT IN 1926.

Greetings. Is it the 2nd-3rd week of November yet? The 500mb pattern sure looks like it.

00z NAM faster with the moisture arrival. Also, 850s are colder looks a lot like the ECMWF bringing the cold air in sooner and tracking that low hugging it along the Washington Coast. The source region for this air mass is coming from Northwest Territories, AB... Oh this 1061mb high over BC couldn't hurt. Wow. That mega high would force arctic air further south/southwest into WA/OR than is modeled. We could see much colder model runs ahead, especially Gorge, Columbia Basin. 00z GFS in 27 minutes

Beautiful sight. I'd be busy fishing. Yup. 00z GFS in 2 hours 21 minutes

2-5-19 4:36 PM Mesoanalysis Upper Air Temps City ___ 925 _ 850 (Images below in this order) Portland -4.3c, -8.5c Salem -3.0c, -7.6c, Astoria -3.1c, -8.2c Seattle -6.0c, -10.0c Bellingham -5.5c, -9.0c The Dalles -6.0c, -8.9c Spokane -6.0c, -10.5c Moses Lake -8.0c, -9.6c Quillayute -4.0c, -8.2c Omak -7.0c, -11.0c (4hr trends shows deeper arctic air moving towards Omak)

Hey, Fred, thanks. I posted some detailed analysis earlier. In case you missed it.... 2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughts Here are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday. It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds. 1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere. 2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will. 3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February. 4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay. 5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned! 2-5-19 4:18 PM [Model Countdown] Next up.... 00z NAM in 1 hour 23 minute (5:41 PM) Later this evening.... 00z GFS in 3 hours 9 minutes (7:27 PM) 00z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 32 minutes (7:50 PM) 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 27 minutes (9:45 PM) Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

At 4 PM the YKA(Kamloops, BC) to OMK(Omak) gradient continues to remain near 10mb. What does that mean? This is northerly flow, so arctic air continues to constantly flood southward into North Central Washington and the Columbia Basin, our source of cold, arctic air. There is still no offshore flow through the Gorge or over the Cascades. I'm keeping an eye on that as well.

2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughts Here are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday. It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds. 1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere. 2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will. 3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February. 4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay. 5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned!

Good isn't a proper enough term. Monumental? Outrageous? Unbelievable? Historic? Sorry, lots of maps to post. Next 2-3 weeks.

Anyone seen the new Euro Weeklies? Make sure you're sitting down and wearing a clean pair of shorts.

Sunset Countdown 3 hours 54 minutes