whatitdo

hahah it's all good man; still more snow I've seen in a season than I can remember. Is there a link to the data you have from those winters you've mentioned? And just based on how it's going so far, do you think this one will at least give us close to the snowfall totals from the winters the past 3 seasons? I feel like I'd be lucky to break 30 even 20 inches for the season right now seeing kalamazoo has really only had 7-9 inches so far.

lol no reason it would change at all. Honestly probably won't look at any model forecast past 120 hours. Seems like the more attention paid to the long range, the more likely it doesn't pan out. I'd rather just be more or less surprised in the 5 day time frame rather than anticipate a change >5 days out only to be disappointed. Grateful for the long range forecasters here and abroad in their success for predicting potential storms/cold and their time frames, but location on where it tracks is the extraordinary challenge - only mother nature herself truly knows ya feels

For midwest/great lakes region though, GEFS and GEPS do not agree; in fact they are very different especially in 1/25 - 1/29 timeframe. GEFS with a lot of positive snow depth change; GEPS with minimal and maybe even less snow depth change. Bets on which one plays out?

wow what a winter to remember for the iowa/minnesota peeps in the sub! System looking awesome

Why do we keep getting whiffed on significant snowfall smh. Even GRR is underwhelmed that all our chances for snow for next 7 days are light and add up to 2 inches at best.

no worries my man i sincerely appreciate the input. We could discuss the AGW stuff in another thread sometime if that were to happen. FWIW I do agree there is an amount of unfair and lazy comparisons about this topic in the sense you have alluded to on both fronts. Have a good day as well!

Saying fishel's post was "trash" and getting all worked up about censorship/silencing opposition is an overly defensive take. He's clearly talking about backing up what people are saying with facts. I think any reasonable level headed person, including everyone on this board, can appreciate that. Could he have been nicer...sure. But that doesn't take away from the valid points he's making. Maybe i've missed something but idk why people get so guilt laden over this topic as if not the vast vast majority of meteorologists and atmospheric scientists agree global warming/climate change is real. On that note I think we should have a climate change thread or something instead of clogging stuff up in here

GRR says this system is meh at best and also meh for future snowfall into next week other than lakeshore areas. -- Transition from rain to snow late Thursday into early Friday -- The models look like they have to come into a good consensus that precipitation with the Thu/Fri system will start to develop over the area later Thursday afternoon. This precipitation should start out as mainly rain for most of the area as the lower levels will start out above freezing up through 850 mb. This will not last long however as evaporative cooling will occur, and turn any rain to snow up north, with the south holding on to rain a little bit longer. It does look like we will not see significant precipitation ahead of this system, keeping snow accumulations in check. The limited precipitation will be a result of limited Gulf moisture being drawn into the system before the front moves east of the area. There could be a couple of inches of snow across Central Lower, but it could be much worse if better and deeper moisture was in place. All locations will gradually see any rain change over to snow as the cooler air moves in. -- Cooler Friday through next week with occasional lake effect chances -- There has been a decent amount of consistency in showing we will not see significant amounts of precipitation, lake effect or synoptic, after the front moves through. We will miss out on the deformation snow on the NW side of this system. The air coming in in not all that cold, only around -6 to -8C. This is not really sufficient instability for lake effect. We will see a few snow showers, with maybe some lake help, but nothing significant, especially by mid- January standards. The snow showers will be more associated with the filling upper low overhead. Once the upper low gets kicked out, we will see the NW flow somewhat similar to the current pattern gain control of the region. The difference between the current pattern, and the one that will take place on Sunday, is that colder air will be available. We will continue to see short waves move through, but they will have more of a potential to bring some lake effect snow showers along with light synoptic amounts. Overall, we continue to not expect a significant amount of snow in any one location in a short period of time over the next week. We will see the snow pack build up, especially near the lakeshore, as we see a couple inches fall at times from Friday through next Tuesday.

saw that too - would effectively be the nail in the coffin for this winter if it comes to fruition in terms of being one of the least snowiest on record for west michigan. What might save you from that fate is the slightly above snowfall you received on the front end this winter if im not mistaken

we can always count on Mr. No for his input. I wanna just toss it

thats very reassuring lets gooooo!

I just hope we score a storm here. I think I may stop model watching or something in order to make sure it happens

Lol i noticed his optimism last week too. Reality bites! Loll just punt it away. Had a dream there was a significant winter storm but then I woke up. Hate sounding like a drag but it is what it is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sigh. I guess at least it is something. From GRR: The other trend for the consensus of models and ensembles, is that a closed sfc low does not develop to our SE and bring a band of snow to the area. Instead, we end up under the upper low complex as it evolves, likely leading to periods of light snow showers Thursday night and into Friday. The air is not all that cold (-8C at 850 mb), so lake instability is not that impressive. Also, the flow pattern in the lower levels is kind of disorganized. -- Colder and unsettled for the weekend and early next week -- Right now, we are not looking for significant accumulations of snow once the colder air settles in. We will see on and off snow showers however that will slowly increase snow depth over the favored lake effect areas this weekend and early next week. The general flow pattern aloft will be cyclonic in nature, and from the NW. We will see multiple short waves move through, which will see lake effect snow showers flare up ahead of them, and diminish behind them. The biggest factor looks to be that we do not stay under cyclonic flow/cold pool aloft persistently. This will allow for breaks in the snow showers, and keep snow from adding up too quick.

lmao we getting shafted again somehow huh @jaster220

do you have the lowest total snowfall in a winter season on record for the GR area? where would you find this at

I like how it's looking post 15th or so. Looks like best chances of prolonged winter weather we've seen thus far. Fingers crossed

I remember reading about that SSW event while i was in the carolinas. How bad was it here when that was going on? Did y’all get good snow too or was it just cold? Interested in hearing some stories lol

Not to mention many of us in west michigan are quite literally experiencing the lowest snowfall totals to date in a loooooonnnnggggg time if not already breaking records. But at the same time I do see where gimmesnow is coming from. Nice to look outside and be reminded that it's winter with cloudy skies and snow on the ground. I absolutely love being outside as it is snowing though, the picturesque winter wonderland with fat flakes falling is my favorite nature phenom.

uff i hate this period of inactivity. at the very least i just want something to track.

Yeah up until the 16th or so it’s looking reaaaaaallllyyyy boring here for January standards

From the article: "The Great Lakes region has seen a larger increase in annual average temperatures than the rest of the continental U.S. And "winters are getting warmer more quickly than the summers are," said Richard Rood, a professor in climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan. "The planet overall is warming, but states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois are getting warmer, faster," said Don Wuebbles, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois. Snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin decreased 2.25% from 1984 to 2013 as compared with 1954 to 1983. Researchers project snowfall could decline by almost 48% by 2080 under a business-as-usual scenario without reduced human carbon emissions. But even under a more optimistic scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, winter snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin is expected to decline by more than 28% by 2080." I've talked with a great deal of elderly patients since moving to Michigan and quite literally all of them have told me winters are much less harsh, much less snow than what they were used to growing up, fwiw. Don't understand how some folks refuse to acknowledge this reality.

I got about a 2.5 inches total from new years day and system that rolled through last night. Pretty solid. I love the white wintry look on the trees!! Total for the season is about 7 inches or so. Main events was this one, the quick 2 incher on the night of the 29th, and the LES event on christmas eve/christmas which also brought around 2.5 inches. Small snows in the big scale of things but it doesn’t take much to make me happy. Still desire a big one or moderate one at the least! Hope we see it

Wow. Complete snoozefest on this 2nd wave on local forecasts stations here atm. Gotta think they rev up forecast totals soon

Loooool that’s ridiculous. Good tip on IWX, will keep that in mind.