whatitdo

This is pretty interesting stuff, do you mind sharing where you got this info from? Thanks

@jaster220 how likely is this look to result in lake effect?

Not getting anything here

Lol @ this temperature outlook

How do we get this to become colder like what is plausible that can happen? Lot of EPS members showing snow so the potential is obviously there.

I'm bout <5 miles west or so of downtown kzoo!

Must be nice lol feel like ill never experience a storm of that magnitude

Just moved this year! From the carolinas

https://howmuchwillitsnow.com/in/kalamazoo/mi @jaster220 cool website that shows the days of snowfall in a chart like representation. So far Kalamazoo has had only 1 inch total snowfall the whole season (and all were pretty much trace events). Over the last 6 years, the average has been 57.5 inches of snow. Judging how next weeks forecast is looking, it seems that in order to get to at least average snowfall the rest of the year, it has to look somewhat like the winter of 2017-2018 did. So it's possible we still see an average snowfall winter but it would have to get going pretty soon if we stand a shot. Or else it's looking like we can be below the previous low in the last 6 years of 45 inches (2016-2017). What are your thoughts?

Hahah hard to relate to this when in the south we’re so used to once a year snowfalls but fair point

At least you’ve had a couple inch snowfall earlier this year! But yeah it sucks haha. Such a delayed start to the season for many southwest michiganders. Just gotta be patient.

bro. im tellin you im a snow repeller. force field activated

lmaoooo seriously!! im throwing it for my sanity's sake. only @jaster220 's weather guru knowledge/reassurance can cheer me up

Not sure what you mean by sarcastically saying that's how it works, but it's pretty supported that our winters are shrinking, which is the emphasis of what I was referring to regardless of the implicit exaggeration in my post

I'm calling it now man - based solely on this gloom feeling in my stomach I have right now, I predict snowfall will be even lower than 2011-2012. Would love to be wrong about this. But the temperatures just always seem to be a tad too warm, even by December standards.

Until people start getting serious about global warming and climate change, we should get used to this. https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1335964206743646209?s=20

Kalamazoo continues to be shafted in very near misses. Smh.

- Potential Storm over this weekend with rain/snow mix The warmer temperatures through the latter half of the week will give way to a system that the latest model runs continually to trend cooler. Latest EC/GEFS continues to trend each successive run colder. However the main precipitation type for Saturday into Sunday remains rain but wet snow is possible at times. There are still some confidence issues with timing but currently it should be moving through midday Saturday through daytime Sunday. Looking at the anomalies, the best moisture will be over the region 18Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday, though there is some variance. So will have to keep an eye for adjustments as this system gets closer. Seems pretty reasonable especially this far out tbh

The snow gradient by my parts is making me wanna tear my hear out

welp. I'm sure a significant one will pop up during the 17th -23rd. Looks like I won't be seeing my first inch of snowfall til after I come back or even til '21 yayy

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh -- Potential for strong low moving through Great Lakes Fri-Sun -- Models have been hinting at a stronger low taking aim on the Great Lakes for late week into the weekend for several days now. Today`s models continue that trend. A deepening plains low is expected by Friday evening which will then move through the Great Lakes over the weekend. Too early to nail down details with all the usual caveats applying here which a phasing system this far out in the forecast. The models have been consistent on some sort of phasing though so confidence is increasing in rain...snow and wind over the weekend. As it stands now it appears rain will spread into the area on Friday, transition to rain and snow on Saturday and then into lake effect snow on Sunday. At this point it appears that we will be on the warmer side of the system with somewhat limited chances for a heavier swath of snow. West Michigan`s better chance for snow will be in the lake effect behind the system. That said...much can change at this range in the forecast and it likely will. Bottom line...stay tuned to later forecasts as we watch this system for next weekend. There isn`t much sensible weather until we get to that part of the forecast anyway. What is it specifically about the upcoming system next weekend that makes lake effect snow a potential for us? It won't verify though. (I'm trying to jinx myself)

@jaster220 @westMJim @Stacsh in yall's experience does SW mich get snow even when temps are consistently above average? Everytime I looked at the temp anomaly map and saw shades of orange and yellow I automatically gave up on even thinking about snow in the south. Granted here temps are colder just at baseline. Now that im finishing typing this question I feel like I'm just looking for reassurance more than anything haha

Will be off the wall annoyed should this verify tbh

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/11/snow-forecasts-here-are-some-important-points-to-remember-as-we-enter-winter.html?fbclid=IwAR3nx7HHELHmyAvdke_denD2t8QbONxffpEIlHMz2WQQqaPDMnfQiRvQh0U this is a good reminder for all of us I believe "First off, an exact snow forecast for a storm starting five days from now and ending seven days is not possible. We can tell you that it looks like a storm that would accumulate six inches or more somewhere in the Great Lakes region. It’s our way of saying this will be a sizable storm somewhere in our region. I know you want to know five days out how much snow exactly is on the way. It’s actually a great compliment to my field of meteorology. We have come so far in accuracy that you want more and more accuracy. That’s okay. That more and more accuracy is always improving. But for now- when you see a “scary, end of the world” snow graphic posted on Facebook, ask yourself who posted it. Also ask yourself how long before the storm starts. If it’s more than 48 hours before a storm is going to start, don’t put much belief in the snow forecast. If the snow is just starting to fall on your head, you can probably have pretty good confidence in the forecast."

Wheres the arctic air D****T. So far out it’ll probably be a nothing burger anyway