SilverFallsAndrew

We've had some really torchy Decembers as of late. Kind of gets lost in the shuffle with the whining about January and we've had some great December's in the past 10-11 years, but when I was looking up those stats for TWL yesterday I had forgotten how warm December 2014 and 15 were. MUCH warmer than this past December. December 2012 was pretty mild on the front end too, and 2010 and 11 were nothing to write home about either. February has shown some real signs of life in the 2011-2018 period after about 15 years in the wilderness.

FV-3 is totally meaningless at this point. It has run way to cold all winter.

Yeah pretty typical for the easterly flow to hang on in these situations and keep things bit cooler. Which is nice. EUG was the only place in the valley that really torched. Sadly the 53/38 at SLE is only a +5 departure with our 1981-2010 normals...

I'm still going with my call of this January cooler than last January...

Looks like maybe some hope for the 19-23 period. Then maybe a building ridge that can retrograde by the end of the month?

I must mention I received 0.41" of rain yesterday, which actually cut my deficit for the month slightly to -1.50". Also had a high of 52, which is warmer than any January high I had in 2013 or 2017. It was 40 this morning.

I've seen better FV3 runs this winter. If it had a habit of verifying we would be around average in terms of temps this winter.

Late night here at the office, the rain is really pounding on the roof right now.

My friend lives out on Crooked River Ranch north of Redmond. He hasn't gotten above 30 today, Redmond had a high of 57.

I remember camping over near Badger Creek east of Mount Hood in March and it was nice. It was a pretty hot summer down here.

6" of snow on the ground Christmas day up here too.

Yeah that was pre-SSW.

Yeah, but there hasn't been an arctic outbreak anywhere...

Well we can always hope. Don't think it was the wettest rainy season here, but it was the wettest December on record. Mid-November through about 1/5 were not bad. After than it was pretty dull.

Probably doesn't mean much for this winter we appear stuck in a Nino type pattern. Whether it officially qualifies or not is really semantics at this point. I hope we have the mother of all Nino's next winter if we are going to have one. Go big or go home.

Except that is not even close to being true. EUG was only +2.3 for December. Both December 2014 and 2015 were significantly warmer at EUG.

I wouldn't call what we've seen so far unprecedented.

I expect the whole valley is going to end up torching by the end of the afternoon, with the possible exception of PDX. CVO and SLE just jumped to 51 and 48 respectively in the past hour and Eugene is up to 60 now with sunny skies and south winds 25g31. These are the kind of days we are going to need if we are to match January 2018.

Sometimes it is good to remember dud winters are fairly common around here.

I distinctly remember going out barefoot and in boxers to break the ice on my livestock water trough on a night in January 2013 when it was in the mid-teens. Not the smartest thing I've ever done, but I survived.

Yeah, its really hard to try and claim the 12z was some kind of "step in the right direction." Going to be a dry month down here. I'm only at 1.15" of rain on the month now which is already -1.57" below average. That departure is only going to grow over the next week.

I would much rather watch local broadcasts as opposed to the brain rot of the national cable networks.

I don't think the 12z would qualify as good by anyone's definition here. And I would take strong GOA blocking and an arctic blast, over W flow and 1500' snow levels any day. But this winter I will be rooting for the 10% chance of some nice cold onshore flow as opposed to the 0.01% chance of an arctic blast.

Just going to throw this question out here since the ENSO thread is pretty dormant. It's pretty clear to me this winter will qualify as a weak Nino. However, on some of the Facebook groups I am in this is being questioned and some people are adamant this winter will not be an official Nino and that it is warm neutral. I find these assertions to be incorrect, am I off base here?

Then why act like you didn't know.