SilverFallsAndrew

Sorry for actually having a life and not being able to comment on the 12z GFS ensembles in real time. They look like a sandwich.

"FroYoBro" is a "Daily Contributor." Great daily contribution here.

It is not. Could lead to a few days of chilly weather if that ridge noses over us.

When all you have in the short/mid range are mild pedestrian systems...Well... Even our benevolent AR has been taken away.

Not necessarily. January 2013 had a cold inversion because there was a fairly cold trough which locked in low level cold air. If there is no low level cold to start with it might end up a bit below average, but wouldn't be frigid.

How is posting what the models actually show "cherry picking?" I was also posting good models runs a few days ago. We just don't have any to show. As Tim would say, just reporting the facts. To quote the great Ben Shapiro, my facts don't care about your feelings.

Let's look at a couple maps to see... Sorry. I was wrong. This looks like a fantastic mountain snow pattern!

I don't know the first 9 days of December felt like winter. This feels more like December 2014.

Plenty of ridging overhead in the long range after a couple average systems and a couple splitting troughs. Just reporting facts the trends are really really bad right now. Tim is right. And we look ahead because there is certainly nothing interesting in the short range.

When compared to even the 00z ensembles they are a total trainwreck. And if you are paying attention, the models are not even very wet for this time of year. This is total precip through the 27th. About 2" at EUG and maybe 4" at PDX. So if this were to verify most of the Willamette Valley would end up below average for the month...Of course it could change, but this isn't even a current trend you can hang onto.

We might end up around average for December rainfall. With below average snowpack, not exactly drought busting stuff.

I would sure like to be able to take the 1991-92 redux off the table. But we cannot do that yet. The 06z ensembles were SO BAD.

Pretty amazing how bad the models are trending after showing some promise as recently as 24 hours ago.

I see you are trying hard to stay positive. Good strategy.

Insomnia sucks...

Don't worry Houston sees a white christmas while we eat a bag of dicks.

Just looks wet coming up. Oh well we need the rain.

Wow that all went to crap fast!

Yeah it was way better than my initial reaction. Very close to greatness.

I was not aware they did.

Absolutely stunning afternoon.

A torchy 53 at SLE and EUG on the hour. Makes up for being a little colder than expected for highs over the weekend. PDX still hanging onto the east wind at 43. Good for them!

The first 9 days of December at least in W. Oregon were generally about 2-4 degrees below average. A good bet the next 9 days are above average. The last couple weeks of the month will probably determine where we end up. I could easily see things going either way or us ending up near average. Some of our coldest Decembers had some pretty major torches in the 10-20th period.

Gets close, just undercut.

I love this. I ran across some great photos of Silverton from January 1909 a few years back.