Joshua Lake Oswego

10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late.

You really live in a beautiful part of the world, Tim. Just stunning.

Eugene averages a bit more rain than SeaTac annually.

Quadruple that of Portland.

We consistently perform below the 10th percentile of ensemble means for precipitation. How is that even possible? I'm no statistician, but I'm pretty sure the 10th percentile should mean 1 out of 10 times, not 9 out of 10 times. As far as my experience tells me, there is nowhere else in the country that has such a gap between forecasted precipitation and verified precipitation.

That's true because I know it would trend drier in subsequent runs. It always does. We might get through the first half of November drier than normal. Hard to fathom based on all the maps you guys have been posting over the last week or so. Every strong system that is forecasted to hit here either weakens dramatically before it arrives or ends up north or south of here. It's crazy.

I’m going, going back, back to Cali, Cali. A bit further north this time at least.

00z ICON on board with hosing the Bay Area on Tuesday and keeping the I-5 corridor in Oregon drier than average over the next week. Precipitation 1/4 of what it was on the 12z. GFS to continue trending drier? You know the answer to that. Tomorrow looks mainly dry now. Portland only eeked out .45’’ the last two days. Bust by all accounts.

But I have been told that the gradient isn't real and the forecast maps show Oregon getting 27'' of rain in the next (insert timeframe beyond the believable range here).

Portland all the way up to .08’’ on the day as the showers continue to lose their intensity as they approach the central metro area.

It’s raining in November? No way. We average about .20’’ a day over the course of the month. Much more than that where some of you live. It looks pretty average to me precipitation-wise through the first half of the month when you account for the model over-optimism. I will bet that we will end up under the Euro ensemble 10th percentile for rainfall at PDX from today through November 15th. That amount is 3.39’’. Mean is 4.92’’. Any takers?

Not even close. .03” total and the rain has moved off to the NE.

Our precipitation down here only busts one way and it ain't on the wetter side.

It becomes even funnier at hour 300.

Yesterday 12z vs today 12z. Notice any slight differences for Oregon?

The rug pulling has begun for later this week.

18z GFS and ICON trending way drier.

PDX is -3.75'' and Eugene is -7.82''. Olympia is +3.38''. For 2020... Seattle +1.98'', Olympia +2.49'', PDX -4.47'', Eugene -7.53''. Anyone want to argue against the gradient?

Good to see that the north/south gradient is back to its standard shenanigans.

The latest HRRR run limits PDX's rainfall to under .25'' for this event. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad and predictable.

@RentonHillTCIf PDX gets less than .65'' of rain between this evening and tomorrow morning, I win. Looking really good for me as the QPF here keeps trending less and less. There is still an outside chance that PDX ends up at below normal precipitation for the month. Anybody want to pull up the maps from 7-10 days ago so I can show you why the 10th percentile of the ensembles is the best forecast?

57 degrees here. Quite the balmy morning.

Except have it go 250 miles south for a change.

18z NAM and ICON shifting back north again.

Sacramento is the new Seattle?