ChiTownSnow
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Everything posted by ChiTownSnow
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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
I am JUST missing out on that stronger band. About 10 miles south of you in Darien -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
Very hard for the national weather service to go against two major models 56 hours out + holiday and brutal cold. But I give them credit for de-emphasizing the snow amounts early on. A to least for Chicago -
We may end up getting more out of this, than the current storm
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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
Exactly they saw it ,but there was so much uncertainty still, They kept the headline which is probably smart anyway given the cold and wind. What made it even harder is it wasn't just the GFS. The euro was the first one to show the big dog and the euro holds a little bit more weight I think. -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
But this wasn't accurate at all. Based on what ended up happening. For the current storm: given the pattern the 1-2 ft was a very plausible outcome, that both the models and human forecasters saw as a real threat. In both cases, the models accurately "corrected" itself as time went on The lesson learned (again) is that the models are not as accurate as we want it to be more than four or five days out. Instead, it gives you an idea of the pattern and the potential and should be used that way. Even so, They are far better than human forecasting at that range (as the NWS wouldn't have done what they did) I think there was some red flags that NWS saw within 56-72 hours, but not enough to Trump the model forecast -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
Exactly.. anybody that says the models are worse now than they were before is dead wrong.. maybe in some cases, like this, the models sees potential, where previously it would have missed the potential, but the models today are for superior than the models 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago..etc -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
Yeah MSP was the winner with this. Who would have thought that 3 days ago That part of the system didn't require so much finesse and everything going correctly -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
It was for EVERYONE. Just at different levels of bust -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
I wouldn't trust those. Most member are clustered in the two to five range. A few crazy drunk members skew the mean. -
Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22
ChiTownSnow replied to bud2380's topic in East of the Rockies
Safe to say the east side of lake is lake enhanced. But it's also wrapping in moisture from Atlantic/gulf as it intensifies -
December 2022 Observations and Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to Iceresistance's topic in East of the Rockies
Correct.. This is my thought too. -
December 2022 Observations and Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to Iceresistance's topic in East of the Rockies
I think everyone on here would gladly take 8". Also = white Christmas with room to spare -
December 2022 Observations and Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to Iceresistance's topic in East of the Rockies
As this pattern starts to set up after the 7th/8th, early snowpack may pay dividends for future systems -
December 2022 Observations and Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to Iceresistance's topic in East of the Rockies
Beyond the 7th, I think it's going to depend how far south the confluence sets up, and subsequently storm track. Certainly central Wisconsin and similar lat are looking good. -
December 2022 Observations and Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to Iceresistance's topic in East of the Rockies
Any snow from the 7th that we do get looks to stick around a while. Hopefully sets the stage -
December 2022 Observations and Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to Iceresistance's topic in East of the Rockies
Looks like 18Z GFS is locking into that cold air after the December 7th storm. confluence presses further south, shears out/suppresses the 7th storm.