hlcater

Honestly gonna have to wait and see where the sleet ends up. If I had to hedge bets, it’s that it pushes more north. Gonna hold with my 6” call.

Full on winter cocktail with that 2nd system for E IA on the GFSs.

The para is still cold and has a nice 8-10" band through CR/IC. The op GFS is alone with it's solution of ZR/IP through hwy 20.

yuck.

Upcoming pattern looks mild but active.... cutter central. Which I guess is fine.

The thing about these HRRR runs is that they show 2"/hr rates for multiple hours in the best band. Not even our most notorious storms have managed that feat. I'd consider it a victory if we even got 1"/hr for that long.

This 2nd system looks gross. Hope it slides SE.

GFS and NAM really love lifting that sleet line. No other model does that and either remains primarily, or all, snow in Cedar Rapids. Due to the nature of overachieving WAA, I am gonna expect at least a period of sleet. First call for Cedar Rapids is 6". If we can avoid a changeover (or the event isn't over quicker than expected, which also seems to happen a lot in WAA event) then we could see those 9 or 10 inch outputs by some models, but for now, I'm gonna bet against those happening.

HRRR/NAM remain too warm for cedar rapids.

As per usual.

CAMs in general are pretty juiced up.

The HRRR tends to bias ever so slightly north/amped at the end of its range.

If that ends up being the correct solution, you really have to commend the Canadian and UKmet

Finished the day with an overperforming 1.2"

Probably one of the few times when a trend towards a pos tilt/progressive wave is a good thing for the majority of posters. Not quite the impressive totals shown earlier (though when you factor in the NYD system, they could end up near there for somebody), but the area of appreciable (4"+) snow has expanded dramatically.

Haase at DVN is clearly a little excited for the new year's potential. Thursday night and Friday (New Years Day): Another potent storm system to impact portions of the Midwest, including the dvn cwa. GFS/ECMWF similar in tracking a Lower Mississippi Valley type cyclone from se TX to Lake MI. These are notorious for bringing copius moisture from the Gulf which would produce heavy, wet snow along with the potential for freezing rain (ice accumulations) and strong winds. This system has a lot going for it, strong low pressure, strong forcing and a deepening closed h5 low. Climatologically speaking these type cyclones can produce 8+ inches of snow and even thundersnows! However, this remains to be seen but if it holds true what a way to start the new year!

And here's why, quite a lot of lift and moisture advection in the DGZ. Little toasty at 800mb, and the GFS still switches to sleet, but is now only accompanied by the NAM in doing so.

Little ZR/IP earlier. Just enough to glaze the roads. Switched over to a very picturesque snow. An inch would be nice?

I started a new one. Probably jinxed it so it’ll be strung out garbage

Snow? Ice? Could be significant for someone

With such powerful WAA aloft, another aspect of this 2nd low is that there probably will be ice for someone if the setup doesn’t change.

Trends with wave 1 are encouraging for our area. I also think the further south wave 1 tracks, the harder it will be for wave 2 to cut super hard, whether that’s enough to keep the mix out of Iowa remains to be seen. But I’d feel good if wave 1 drops sig snow as far south as I80.

storms like this simply dont pan out for us. There's a reason why I'm not following this one run to run.

This just reeks of a Dakotas/MN special. Maybe some front end snow/ice for us then rain. On an anecdotal note, can you really expect a strong-ish surface low with a ton of moisture to not track through Iowa in some capacity?

Euro lays down 50" in Kansas, so I'll confidently bet against that. Think this is probably the craziest euro run I've ever seen actually.