IbrChris

"The maps from Jan /Feb 1893 didn't look nearly severe enough to me." Actually I got a classic arctic blast look @ 500 mb when I took the mean of Jan 25-Feb 7, 1893. Fairly impressive. Try pulling the 500 mb height anomaly and overriding the color table with the settings: step = 20, min = -300, max = 300. I use this color table for all my searches because it standardizes the look and colors of the maps for comparison purposes. I note a -160 m departure over WA in the 1893 event.

A lot of interpolation to be sure, esp prior to a large enough obs network which generally didn't come into existence until the 1890s for most areas. Even then the upper air data is extrapolation from surface data prior to WWII as atmospheric soundings began to shed more light on the workings of the mid and upper troposphere. However, it's what we have and while not gospel prior to the NCEP reanalysis period (1948 onward) it's nonetheless better than guesswork. I'd like some data for these events if you've got it...specifically for the early events I'm trying to get monthly mean temp, lowest afternoon temp ("lo max") and lowest morning temp ("lo min"). I've been unable to find any BC data for the Jan 1888 event over on Environment Canada's website so if you have some info there that would be great. For Jan 1875 likewise I have a lot of missing data for sites. This is what I have so far (in tabular form): Station | Monthly Mean | Lo Max | Day | Lo Min | Day Station This format will be used for 19th century events where number of stations is relatively small and data sparse. Would love to get info on those 19th century events Snow Wizard, WxStatman etc. Now that you have an idea what parameters I'm interested in. I'll also include snowfall as appropriate. I mainly need your help for pre-1890 data as the NCDC state climatology publications begin in 1890 and are fairly comprehensive with regard to the parameters I'm interested in. If I can get a little data for the earlier events like Jan 1854, Dec 1855, Jan 1862, Mar 1867, Jan 1868 etc I will include those with a small narrative for each and the available data (I have the monthly means for those months already).

So I've decided to put together a Power Point (I know...roll your eyes) of the major arctic events in PNW history dating back to the 1870s. My methodology for now is to have a slide for each with a 500 mb height anomaly chart and a 300 mb mean vector wind chart from the ESRL 20th century reanalysis (1871-2012). For later events post-1948 I'll use the higher resolution NCEP reanalysis dataset. I'm also adding a listing of coldest lows at selected PNW locations from that event on the slide. Yesterday I completed the Jan 1875, Jan 1888 and Jan-Feb 1893 events (latter one was more BC and WA centric rather than the entire PNW but I included it due to it being quite severe from Olympia northward...low of -6 at Eastsound, -3 at Olga, -1 Port Angeles, 8 Neah Bay. Vancouver, BC region was around -2 in that one). So, give me some ideas of others to include from 1870s to present with start and end dates. I'll share the presentation when its complete. Feel free to suggest some which affected mainly Washington as well as others that affected mainly Oregon too. My goal here is also selfish, I'd like to learn more about the overall pattern in each event. Each was unique...Jan 1875 had a vastly different pattern than Jan 1893 for instance. Thanks in advance.

Actually that was the first question my boss asked me in the interview process. Boss: "Hey, it says here you beat out your professor in the forecast contest portion of Meteo 5120: Synoptic Meteorology II." Me: "Ya, that was a lot of fun." Boss: "Would you mind divulging what kind of astrological divination you utilized to achieve that? Daily tarot readings? Magic 8 ball? Peyote?" Me: "I know a guy..."

Supposedly a sand storm was in the vicinity at the time the reading was taken, implying strong winds as well. Unlikely you would have the extreme near-surface superadiabatic layer necessary to achieve a 130+ reading even at Death Valley in those conditions. It is posited that hot sand grains may have been driven by the wind into the thermometer casing thus helping to inflate the reading. I would guess it was a fairly typical summer day temperature-wise...which would be 115-118 given July normals, 120-125 if a stout ridge with high 500 mb heights is over the region.

Questioning without contributing is problematic. I can question your declaration that the sky is blue, but if I offer no other feasible explanation and just say "the sky ISN'T blue" to me it's simply being contrarian for the sake of attention. Although it could be argued a lot of people on these forums are seeking attention perhaps out of boredom and/or lack of fulfillment in their lives. Sure a lot of us like to talk about meteorology and are quite knowledgeable on the subject but let's face it there's a lot of ego sabre-rattling and stroking that goes on here.

"when I find the highly vague input that I have" A bit of pot vs kettle wouldn't you say? I graduated with a 3.72 cumulative GPA with my meteorology degree, I also scored 97th percentile on the English portion of the GRE yet I can't make hide nor hair of most of what you write. I was concerned it was just me, then I joined a TheWeatherForums support group and others came to me in tears claiming they encountered the same incomprehensibility. "But certainly generally within the lines of basic form." Please note: comma-splicing is considered improper form when writing in English and remedying that would go a long way to the readability and comprehension of others with regard to what you are writing. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comma_splice "This with some amount of more abstract suggestion of the idea" "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." --Albert Einstein. KISS principle invoked here...in other words simplicity IS beauty, complexity and abstraction are not. The sign of intellect is being able to take a complex and often abstract idea and put it into layman's terms while still maintaining the veracity of the explanation. In other words keep it simple, this isn't a PhD dissertation or an online discussion between post-docs involved in quantum mechanics research. This is a forum largely of weather enthusiasts with little formal meteorological education aside from the handful of mets on here. http://www.theenglishedition.com/wordpress/?p=285 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle No one is being lazy here, in my opinion, intellectually or otherwise (note the proper use of commas...I could remove "in my opinion" and the sentence still makes sense). It does no good to post a long and rather terse/abstract explanation about what you believe is going on in present and future weather patterns if other users simply skim past it because they cannot glean anything from it. Don't take this post the wrong way but rather in the light of helpful suggestions for improvement. Face it, it's ridiculous to just to let some sh*t "pass" - One man's schit is another man's treasure. Oh wait... Disagreeing with someone doesn't mean you need to belittle their opinion. Point out their mistakes cogently if you are able, if not your rhetoric just displays your ignorance. You know the saying "Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it and remove all doubt." Also try and avoid jumping right into a confrontational/accusatory stance when replying to people. This is very off-putting until and unless you've established that the OP had an intent to deceive (thus guilt). I highly doubt any user here intends to deceive people. Most of what is posted on this forum is subjective opinion, the only thing objective are the sources such as model runs, peer-reviewed studies and observational data.

My opinion is that the Badwater reading by a park ranger in June 1994 is probably the highest reputable reading in the world...131 degrees. Furnace Creek had 129 the same day at the official station but it's some bit higher in elevation versus Badwater.

Or the long-standing world record of 136 from Al-Azizyah, Libya taken under perverse conditions of overexposure and with no station in the region within 15 degrees of it for a high. WMO decertified it recently and the slightly less dubious 134 at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California is now the world record. Taking skin temp into consideration satellite data suggest remote parts of the Dasht-e-Lut (Lut Desert) in SE Iran approach 158 F...but this would be a near-surface temp rather than one taken at 2 meters AGL. It's possible that Dasht-e-Lut could beat out Death Valley if observational data were available. This is similar to the satellite-derived surface temps at "Dome C" in Antarctica which were recorded to be around -140. It's known that "Dome C" is generally colder than Vostok though, however it hasn't beaten the -129 at Vostok yet for a 2 meter AGL temperature.

Nice trough along the west coast with a ridge over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes. Looks like a tropical system off Cape Hatteras as well. Weak positive height anomalies present over the Gulf of Alaska toward the central Pacific. This would be a decent pattern in winter for a modest modified arctic event favoring BC and northern WA. Orientation of the trough suggests potential for decent lowland snow west of the Cascades with NW flow but a fairly short over-water trajectory. Source: ESRL 20th C reanalysis http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.70.96.228.67.339.18.53.3.gif

In our time (most of us) there was summer 1993...biggest dud in a generation, but not quite on par with some of the really bad ones in the 1950s. Summer 1993 was the coldest (Jul-Aug) on record in the 20th century for the northern Rockies and portions of the Intermountain West though...by a wide margin.

For extreme cold in late summer check out the truly arctic blast in late Aug 1910 which affected mainly E WA-E OR and ID/MT. Many major stations recorded their August record low in that event...there were numerous lows from upper 20s to lower 30s across eastern WA with 15-25 across some valley portions of Montana and Idaho. In August. Looking at the mean 500 mb pattern from Aug 23-25, 1910 it looks very classic arctic blast for the northern Rockies. Sprawling amplified ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and deep trough centered over Manitoba extending into the northern Plains along with another ridge centered over the Maritimes.

Yep, people noted "in the sun" temperature and "at the ground" temperature back in some of those 19th century observations. For instance at New Westminster on Jan 16, 1862 the ground temperature fell to -15 but the low was -2 at standard observing height (probably between 4-6 feet above ground level). Also in the same year New Westminster had an "in the sun" temperature of like 106 but the highest shade temperature recorded was 86. Some of these errors are obvious and get QC'd easily upon inspection, others aren't as easily noticed and crop up in the official records as unlikely/implausible records. Take the 119 at Pendleton, OR in 1897 as an example, it was a simple averaging of readings taken around town that varied from 114 to 123.

Have at it http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl

January 1862 had a mean of 21.3 at Ft Vancouver or a departure of roughly 19 degrees considering the 1981-2010 normals for the Portland area (~40 in January). It's pretty significant for a maritime climate however. Compare that departure to the -11.4 mean at Cut Bank, MT in Feb 1936 (normal mean 21.6) for a departure of -33 F.

1 at Newport is just astounding. Tied with 1 on 12/8/1972 for coldest temp on record. Newport also had a high of 20 on 12/18/1924. Aside from a brief warmup prior to the 2nd blast it was below 40 for 3 weeks in Portland. Not as remarkable as Jan 1862 which had only ONE day which reached the 40s.

I'll take a repeat of the Jan 1888 double arctic blast: Jan 2 Astoria 39/36 .18 Portland 42/32 .27 Eola 36/32 .51 Newport 41/34 .23 The Dalles 34/32 .39 Jan 3 Astoria 36/30 .04 Portland 36/30 .13 Eola 34/26 Newport 42/30 .06 The Dalles 36/25 .20 Jan 4 Astoria 35/30 Portland 38/26 Eola 30/25 Newport 36/26 .14 The Dalles 37/22 .06 Jan 5 Astoria 33/26 Portland 28/20 Eola 26/18 Newport 32/21 The Dalles 23/10 Jan 6 Astoria 30/20 Portland 25/17 Eola 25/15 Newport 31/18 The Dalles 13/-3 Jan 7 Astoria 29/21 Portland 24/12 Eola 21/11 Newport 32/18 The Dalles 9/-6 Jan 8 Astoria 30/21 Portland 21/10 Eola 22/11 Newport 32/19 The Dalles 6/-10 Jan 9 Astoria 34/22 Portland 21/10 Eola 21/10 Newport 37/20 The Dalles 9/-6 Jan 10 Astoria 35/28 Portland 28/12 Eola 28/18 Newport 42/26 The Dalles 18/3 Jan 11 Astoria 43/33 .40 Portland 42/7 Eola 41/35 .36 Newport 46/31 .14 The Dalles 37/7 Jan 12 Astoria 41/30 .24 Portland 44/28 .22 Eola 39/27 .38 (2.5" snow) Newport 46/29 .15 The Dalles 44/28 .08 Jan 13 Olympia 22/11 Astoria 30/14 Portland 36/11 Eola 14/5 (difference in obs time?) Newport 34/13 .06 The Dalles 15/-4 Jan 14 Olympia 21/1 Astoria 22/13 Portland 15/4 Eola 13/-5 Newport 25/7 The Dalles 4/-10 Jan 15 Olympia 20/-2 Astoria 19/10 Portland 9/-2 Eola 13/0 Newport 20/1 The Dalles 2/-14 Jan 16 Olympia 18/3 Astoria 16/10 Portland 10/0 .13 (2.5" snow) Eola 14/-1 .51 (2.8" snow) Newport 30/5 The Dalles -1/-14 .04 Jan 17 Astoria 44/16 .96 Portland 22/6 .48 (6" snow) Eola 40/27 Newport 44/27 .31 The Dalles 12/-4 .24 Jan 18 Astoria 41/33 .22 Portland 28/8 Eola 39/16 Newport 44/30 The Dalles 10/-10 Jan 19 Astoria 36/32 Portland 33/14 Eola 32/28 Newport 43/33 The Dalles 25/2 Jan 20 Astoria 38/29 .28 Portland 30/20 .06 (1.5" snow) Eola 27/25 .64 (3.5" snow) Newport 39/29 .15 The Dalles 26/16 .13 Jan 21 Astoria 44/28 1.04 Portland 32/19 .39 (no snow) Eola 42/26 .47 Portland 47/30 ,44 The Dalles 26/13 .06 Jan 22 Astoria 42/34 .16 Portland 35/19 .22 (no snow) Eola 44/43 .71 Newport 50/41 .44 The Dalles 30/13 Jan 23 Astoria 50/40 1.20 Portland 49/20 .47 (no snow) Eola 48/42 .48 Newport 52/44 .51 The Dalles 28/16 .11 (16.0" snow for the month)

The Army Signal Corps publication "Climate of Oregon and Washington Territory" gives a mean temp of 33.3 for Fort Steilacoom in Dec 1852 which is the value I've used. I'm guessing it's the mean of all three obs each day instead of just the "high" and "low" given in the spreadsheet (highest and lowest obs of the three each day).

Nice. How about Dec 1855 at Ft. Vancouver. Low of -1 and a mean of 28.3. Fort Steilacoom fell to 5 that month with a mean of 34.5.

Speaking of which Feb 2014 was starting to piss me off as the last event ended and the ZR began. My area streets were a cluster and I just wanted all that schtick off the roads. I've lived in Idaho and Utah where snow is the norm Nov-Mar and it's really a non-issue if roads are maintained...ie salted/sanded. Even then the snow gets old after a couple weeks, temps in the negatives sooner than that.

My parents have photos of me and my siblings playing in the snow in the Feb 1989 event. We lived in Yelm, WA at the time and while I don't know offhand how cold it got (I was 6 years old in that event) I recall that it was pretty chilly and the snow stuck around for quite awhile, week maybe? I recall the December 1990 event much better...we had Christmas at my aunt/uncle/cousins' in Rainier and there were several inches of snow on the ground. They lived next to the Deschutes River which had frozen nearly all the way across. My first and only White Christmas during my time living in western WA (1988-2001).

Of course another very remarkable month was March 1867, which would have been considered a cold January in and of itself...mean at Ft. Vancouver was 36.1! Astoria 37.4. Ft. Colville had a mean temp of 19.5 which is only slightly warmer than the coldest January in the modern era at The Dalles (to put it into perspective). I've seen daily data for March 1867 at Albany, OR which notes a very late low of 15 on Mar 14th preceded by a 16 and followed by a 19. This is quite a bit colder than the March 1906 event which managed 21 at Eugene on March 16th and 17th (Corvallis 22 on the 17th). March 1906 had the latest arctic wave of this magnitude since 1867 in Oregon.

Some quick Jan 1862 vs Jan 1875 comparisons: Vancouver/New Westminster, BC Coldest temp in 1862 was -2, coldest in 1875 was -5 Portland/Vancouver Coldest temp in 1862 was -10, coldest in 1875 was 3. mean temp 21.3 in Jan 1862 vs 30.3 in Jan 1875 Astoria mean temp 28.2 in Jan 1862 vs 32.2 in Jan 1875 Ft. Colville Coldest temp was -30 in 1862 vs -33 in Jan 1875 (haven't seen Jan 1875 documentation for Ft. Colville myself but I take WxStatman's word for it.) mean temp 2.5 in Jan 1862 vs 5.7 in Jan 1875 Ft. Walla Walla Coldest temp -24 in 1862 vs -29 in 1875 Actually appears Jan 1868 probably was a tad colder in Willamette Valley than Jan 1875. Eugene fell to -15 on 1/10/1868 and Albany -6 following night. Mean temp Jan 1868: 29.7 at Astoria, 22.4 at Ft. Vancouver, 26.8 at Ft. Steilacoom, 7.0 at Ft. Colville In terms of region-wide effects I'd rate them 1) Jan 1862, 2) Jan 1868 and 3) Jan 1875...although I agree Jan 1875 could have been on par with Jan 1862 for extreme northern portion of WA and southern BC, there's just not enough data to make a true call there. For instance Ft. Colville was 3 degrees warmer for a mean temp in 1/1875 versus 1/1862.

Ya Jan 1875 event was spectacular...probably 2nd only to Jan 1862 and perhaps Jan 1868...it appears to have been quite a bit shorter duration thus not affecting the monthly mean as much. As we saw previously New Westminster fell to -5 that month. Remarkable that Canby saw afternoon temp of 8 degrees when modern record LOW for Astoria (well, sorta modern) is 10 on 1/15/1888 (Portland hit -2).

Just how does Jan 1862 compare to modern records? Let's do some comparisons: New Westminster, BC (analog to Vancouver, BC) Jan 1862 mean temp: 21 deg F (likely a bit high since it's mean of 9 am and 3 pm temps) Jan 1862 lowest temp: -2 on 1/15/1862 (9 am temp...low could have been closer to -10). Modern era coldest temp: 0 on 1/14/1950 at Vancouver, also -5 on 1/17/1875 and 1/18/1875 at New Westminster Present airport location (CYVR) a poor location for historical comparison due to being right on water, likely a +5 F bias in arctic events esp calm nights. Lillooet, BC Jan 1862 mean temp: 7.3 Jan 1862 lowest temp: -22 Modern era lowest temp: -26 in Nov 1985 at Lillooet airport. Ft. Steilacoom, WA (rough analog to McChord/Olympia) Jan 1862 mean temp: 24.1 Jan 1862 lowest temp: -8 on 1/16/1862 and 1/17/1862 Modern era lowest temp: -8 at Olympia on 1/1/1979 This is most remarkable because the lowest a near-shore station has gotten in Tacoma area in modern era was 5 degrees in Nov 1955. Ft. Vancouver, WA (analog to Portland/Vancouver) Jan 1862 mean temp: 21.3 (mean of 7 am, 2 pm and 9pm temps...probably within a degree or so of reality) Jan 1862 lowest temp: -10 on 1/17/1862 (7 am temp) Honorable mention: -7 on 1/16/1862 (7 am temp) Modern era lowest temp: -3 at Portland on 2/2/1950 Modern era coldest month: 27.0 at Portland (apt) in Jan 1950 Astoria, OR Jan 1862 mean temp: 28.2 Jan 1862 lowest temp: ?? Modern era lowest temp: 10 on 1/16/1888 Modern era coldest month: 31.0 in Jan 1949 Fort Yamhill, OR located near Grande Ronde, west of Willamina Jan 1862 mean temp: 23.9 Jan 1862 lowest temp: ?? Modern era lowest temp: -11 at Dallas, OR on 1/31/1950 (closest station) Modern era coldest month: 28.9 in Jan 1949 and Jan 1950 at Dallas Ft. Hoskins, OR (no good modern analog...19 mi NW of Corvallis in Kings Valley) Note: It's located east of the Coast Range divide so Corvallis may not be a bad comparison Jan 1862 mean temp: 26.8 Jan 1862 lowest temp: 0 on 1/17/1862 Modern era lowest temp: 2 at Corvallis Water Bureau on 2/4/1989 and 12/8/1972 (closest station) -14 at Corvallis State Univ on 12/12/1919 Modern era coldest month: 31.2 in Dec 2009 at Corvallis Water Bureau 29.4 in Jan 1930 at Corvallis State Univ Ft. Umpqua, OR (modern-day Elkton, OR) located SW of Eugene in Douglas County Jan 1862 mean temp: 36.0 Jan 1862 lowest temp: 16 on 1/17/1862 Modern era lowest temp: 0 on 12/8/1972 (same night Eugene hit -10 and Salem -12) Modern era coldest month: 32.0 in Jan 1937 Ft. Dalles (analog to The Dalles, OR) Jan 1862 mean temp: 10.9 Jan 1862 lowest temp: -23 on 1/17/1862 Modern era lowest temp: -30 on 12/13/1919 (same event McMinnville hit -24) Honorable mentions: -26 on 12/12/1919 and -25 on 1/21/1930 and 2/3/1950 Modern era coldest month: 18.5 in Jan 1979 at The Dalles (apt), 18.7 in Jan 1937 at The Dalles (city) Ft. Walla Walla, WA (analog to Walla Walla) Jan 1862 mean temp: 9.0 Jan 1862 lowest temp: -24 Modern era lowest temp: -24 on 12/30/1968 however Ft. Walla Walla had -29 on 1/8/1875 Modern era coldest month: 16.5 in Jan 1950 (airport), 15.1 in Jan 1979 at Whitman Mission Ft. Colville (analog to Colville, WA, fort was 3 miles N of modern town) Jan 1862 mean temp: 2.5 Jan 1862 lowest temp: -30 on 1/17/1862 Modern era lowest temp: -33 on 12/30/1968 Honorable mention: -29 on 1/11/1909 and 2/9/1933 Modern era coldest month: 5.6 in Jan 1937