snow_wizard

Totally weird how you switched places with the central Puget Sound today. We cleared out and you didn't. Next week is when the inversion will really get going. Hopefully we can manage to get some solidly below normal temps with it. With weak offshore flow all week and persistently clear skies above the inversion for several days it could easily get pretty cold. Yesterday was pretty nippy here with a 38-32 high/low. Today was 47-29.

A 160W ridge axis is fraught with uncertainty. Very easy for things to go wrong with that. I'm hoping future runs will trend the post retrogression block further east. Certainly could happen. We all know how things can trend too far east when a ridge is initially shown at 150.

One interesting thing about the ECMWF MJO forecast is it puts a strong wave into 6 and 7 and then rapidly weakens and heads for a re-emergence in octant 5. Out of all of them I think 5 is the best for us, although 6/7 can be good also.

I think it will really tighten its grip this coming week. Probably going to be cold and gray for most of us.

At least we are in the running for something good. I love your avatar!

Right now it appears anything from a wet snow situation on the hills to a more widespread lowland snow threat are both about equally possible. The GFS operational shows the ridge at 160W which usually brings some lowland snow, but not as good as 150. The ECMWF ensemble MJO forecast suggests the ridge would be further east. At least we have something interesting watch now.

The ECMWF ensemble has been showing the same thing as the GFS but just a few days later. If you look at the GFS suite of models it shows amazing changes in just 3 days between days 8 and 11.

I'm particularly fond of the SE ridge.

Nice analog composite. Our ducks are rapidly lining up here.

The 12z spaghetti is really running with the idea of rapid height rises around the NW GOA, Aleutians, and Bering Sea. Our opportunity may be only 10 days away now. Let's hope we have just a little bit of luck this time. Most of the really good ensemble members look good for lowland snow. Few if any show the jet being suppressed too far south.

Just absolutely amazing how damp it is out there. Everything is drenched and dripping. This has to be the dampest inversion I've seen in spite of some filtered sun today.

The best sign of all is how the time frame has moved up. The MJO is really being picked up on now. Looks like the SOI is going to really prove itself to be a good forecasting tool once again. We just had a +50 daily SOI a few days ago and 6 consecutive days of readings over +20. Hard to believe such a simple index could be so useful.

This is the first time I've heard you mention this. I could point to a number of winters that were on a 4 week cycle.

All models are clear a major change is coming. Rising heights near the Aleutians, the eastern trough lifts out, and a trough develops in the west. The big picture is good.

The 12z GFS is much prettier than previous runs. A much nicer evolution of the Aleutian blocking.

Hmmm...it appears the images aren't posting correctly. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

That has to be some kind of a record I would think. WAY overdue. I'm very encouraged by latest EPO/PNA forecast. Both significantly negative by late Jan / very early Feb.

Low clouds are just arriving here after brief clearing this morning.

I just can't imagine the insane positive height anomalies we've seen this month not being made up for before the winter is over. There is still room for a major cold event out of all this.

I'm far from sold Feb will be really wet, but it should be much more troughy than what we have seen lately. At present there is a strong indication of -EPO developing

I'm sure Phil will be touched when he sees this.

I think a Nino is the most likely, but not a lock yet. We are currently in the biggest SOI spike in weeks (maybe months) and Nino 3.4 was -0.5 on the last update. It's also worth considering the 1976-77 drought was during a Nino. I think your drought will end, but it may be something other than a Nino that will do it. A major pattern shakeup is well advertised now so you might do better in Feb.

Given how persistent the blocky patterns have been the past couple of winters it's highly possible it could last a while longer. It seems like we are quite due for a 150W block also. The extreme nature of the blocking currently over us makes me wonder if a reversal may be in the cards. A total reversal from this would probably be pretty good for us. I think we are going to have a shot at it, but there's always a chance it will get mucked up when it tries to happen.

Looking like some places will be very icy in the morning. Currently soaking wet with dense fog and 32 here. Drier air seeping in though the passes is allowing the temps to drop a little bit each day at the surface. I think next week will be pretty chilly in areas that don't mix out. Probably highs mid to upper 30s and lows mid to upper 20s. Pretty impressive how different the 0z GFS analog composite is at day 11 compared to previous runs. It actually shows us in below normal heights at that time with a strong positive center to our NW. Nice improvement in the ensemble also.

Quite a bummer to have to start over at post number 1.