snow_wizard

In Tim's defense the past 5 weeks have been horrendous. One of the worst Januaries I've seen.

I'll take an order of the 12z EPS ensemble with a side of 12z Euro operational. The ECMWF suite of models is all in as of now. My birthday is on the 20th so I would love to see them be right!

With very low solar and still before the minimum a Nino is highly unlikely.

The thing I really like is the blocking across the Pole. That has a tendency to dig the cold SW toward us.

That is a fantastic mean for that time frame. The Canadian ensemble is similar.

I think if anything happens it will be in the 8 to 12 day period. I see nothing has changed with your attitude. You should probably just try staying away like I have the past couple of weeks.

Certainly shades of January 1969 with the basic configuration of the blocking showing up in the models. I have to say the biggest encouragement of the day was the 12z ECMWF / ensemble. Really good stuff.

Interesting to note the GEM and GFS both have the PV displaced abnormally far SW of normal as we get toward day 10. Maybe this thing will actually work out for us. It wouldn't surprise me since the tropics / MJO are basically all wrong, while absolutely perfect conditions in the tropics brought us nothing but misery for the past two weeks. We obviously have a different driving force this winter.

Very notable improvement on all three ensemble means tonight for week two. That's all I'm going to say for now.

I think the GFS has flipped it's lid. I can't even imagine what a wave like that would do.

The EPS is a notch better than the 12z was. The 500mb height anoms are slightly more than 30 meters lower during the crucial period.

Interestingly the GFS operational analog composite at day 8 isn't that bad. Some really nice events in there.

The Euro shows 2 to 3 inches of snow for my area with the Arctic front. That would be pretty awesome especially if we get more with the reload. Just stating what the model shows...

If that verifies we will have some vodka cold by 11.

Perfect tilt, perfect placement, perfect balance between the mid latitude and high latitude sectors of the block. Purdy! I certainly hope we can have all of the runs of all three models come in good this weekend.

Looks like the models might finally be converging. The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS look pretty similar and very cold. Huge improvement on the 18z ensemble too. I've told you all along the tropics and context of this situation strongly support a cold outcome. More to forecasting than just models!

Yup. I'm just as optimistic as I was 24 hours ago.

People should know the drill by now. No one model or ensemble run is going to make or break this.

GEM ensemble is incredible.

What about this winter? This event still has a good chance. As of now on tonight's models we have... 1. Excellent GFS operational 2. so so GFS ensemble 3. Decent GEM operational 4. Fantastic GEM ensemble

Incredible GFS run tonight. It would sure be fun to have all of the models be great at the same time!

In all seriousness if this thing pans out some kind of an early March event could be on the table also.

The CFS has finally started to pick up on this too. About half of the runs showing cold at least making into the northern half of WA.

Crayon treatments are fun!

1887, 1936 hybrid?