TT-SEA

Nothing but warm anomalies on the EPS mean through day 15 (after Sunday). Took me 20 seconds to check and type this update.

12Z EPS shows no sign of a crash... just nice consistent warmth.

12Z ECMWF shows zonal flow arriving at day 10.

I really like the idea of a less robust warm spell that lasts much longer. No extreme heat... maybe no crash.

North Bend is 3.8 miles away from my house. And 600 feet lower. The difference can be insane. I have seen times when there is nothing but green grass in town and well over 2 feet of snow here. You probably remember the video I did driving up our hill a few years ago... transformation from nothing to huge snow banks in a matter of one minute of drive time.

I think you need to launch a full investigation and smear-campaign against BLI now.

I thought the July troughing was a runway and runaway warm anomaly nightmare at SEA?

SEA is running -3.2 and Bellingham is at -1.5 Meanwhile... Quillayute is matching SEA perfectly at -3.2 What is wrong with SEA??

Not sure. Hoquiam has had twice as much rain as Astoria this month so far... could be part of the difference depending on timing.

Tomorrow looks like the last mostly cloudy day for the next week at least. Saturday and Sunday are both mostly sunny... before and after our amazing and incredible clipper system.

Very different on certain days in August when offshore flow surfaced at AST. But on traditional onshore flow days... they are probably not too different. Like this month. And in July..

When they were filming the new Twin Peaks here last October... they had to be constantly spraying water on the streets. The daytime filming must have screwed them up though because there were many days of perfectly blue sky. Maybe they will CGI the clouds in later. My boys helped out on the set and I know they filmed many scenes on some gorgeous days. Sort of goes against the mood of the show.

Its coming... http://www.indiewire.com/2016/06/goonies-2-sean-astin-teases-sequel-details-one-eyed-willie-1201686359/

It was a joke Jared. Should have included emoticon.

I bet its a real quiet location too! I could see Jim moving there and installing some fans and having blocks of ice bought in. That'll show those global warming freaks.

This location is about 500 feet or so from the actual KSEA sensor. About as close as you can get. Seems like you could go here and verify pretty closely.

I have often thought about doing that at SEA... I am just a couple miles away at my office. How hard is it to prove its basically right or way off?

Nice to see 00Z GFS keeps it generally ridgy through the entire run. No immediate crash on that run like has been mentioned previously.

AST is at +1.1 and OTH is at +1.0

Well there you go. Somebody will win the cold October sweepstakes and its best to go with the opposite of the CFS and we win then! ECMWF weeklies have been wrong as well. Any more insight from as tropical forcing perspective?

Looks like a crisp, sunny fall day on Sunday on the 18Z GFS as well. Looks absolutely lovely. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_126_500_vort_ht.gif

You are due! PDX was -0.1 for July so we have paid our cold debt for the entire region.

I would report a cold October as well. Absolutely. I will report whatever it shows. Right now... the long range models (EPS, CFS, ECMWF weeklies) all show a warm pattern coming up for quite awhile. The first time I see cold in October... I will report it immediately.

Here is October from the monthly CFS run.

New ECMWF weeklies are warm through most of October. The latest CFSv2 run is the same... even warmer actually. The cold is focused in the middle of the country for the next 6 weeks on both runs.