weather girl

I am the first to admit that I am really bad at reading models. But I have lived here long enough to know that we are likely heading into a really miserable spring and early summer. At this point, I'm not really sure a pattern flip would have changed that. I did think it would flip this month, though. Summer cancel?

Yeah. I'm pretty sure you'll want to stay right where you are.

I love the Big Island. The last time we were there, it had just snowed on Mauna Kea. It was beautiful. Still warm on the beach....around 80, I think. And Waikaloa is stunning.

I was thinking this, too. We'll see.

Nice to see model talk again. I'm starting to get interested in the trough next weekend.

It's pretty typical for the center of the country to get the goods during a La Nina, isn't it? I'm just not sure this has been an atypical La Nina year even though we were expecting more out here. Plus, it's a weak event that was late developing. There's still time. But I do think we can probably go ahead and cancel spring and early summer at this point.

We never get any love down here in the slums.

Everything else seems to kind of make sense to me, but 4, 6, and 8 seem to be at odds about what to do with that block. Throw in 7, too. Keeps trying trying to answer it a bunch of different ways.

Good info, Jim. I hope we get some sort of a flip before the end of FEB. I am so over winter by then. It sounds like our spring is going to suck. Hard. And summer will likely start sometime after JUL 5th.

You are a very stable genius.

Maybe I'm a little too syrupy today, Jesse's hbd and all This is our spring, so we better enjoy it while it's here. HBD, Jesse!

This is the stuff you are really good at. I mean that.

Boom. Mic drop.

Same here. I think we ended up with 18-22 inches. Might be off an inch or two. It's understandable, but we just don't get the coverage that the east does. Still, enjoy the storm east coasters!

That is really interesting. I always thought the cold air was bottled up *right* at the border. I used to keep pretty good historical records of my own before you could find everything online---like notebooks full--and historically speaking, FEB is our snowiest month. Jim and others here probably have more on it than I do.

I love fog. Enjoy.

TT and Jim. Jim and TT. It's like our very own Ross and Rachel (only not.) We don't necessarily need Arctic air. We do need a pattern change, though. I think we've all lived here long enough to know what our spring and summer will likely be like the longer we go without one. I would take a good old fashioned wind storm at this point. Not to end on a depressing note, but I thought I heard Mark Nelson say last night that there is no end in sight. Ugh......

Exactly. Except for maybe August which can go either way. We can definitely be so completely hosed this spring and probably summer. Ugh.....

Picture or it didn't happen. (I'm kidding.)

FWIW, Weather Channel is all in:

It's going to flip at some point. It's just the law of the indices. I just hope it's before spring or we're in for a really miserable winter followed by a really miserable spring.

I actually agree. A pattern flip is looking entirely possible about mid-January---even the models, while not committing---kinda, sorta think so. They'll come around. If it doesn't happen then, I don't think it will happen in FEB either. For reasons.

We have this sort of wavy jet stream happening where it dips and rises kind of randomly. It really isn't that unusual for a La Nina. To me, it seems like we've been about a month behind since September. Does anybody know of analogs for this year by any chance?

Yeah. Still Salem. Hi Brian in Bellingham. I'm probably in the wrong thread, but I hope a pattern change is coming soon. I'll check around. I've kind of missed the good ol' Weather Forum. Maybe this is way too big, but hey.

Hi you guys - I haven't been here in for*ev*er, but I was thinking about y'all. Must be the PNA ridge. The last time I was here, Jim was on hiatus. Dewey, Jesse, Tim----all still here. Nice to know some thing never change. Hope you are all doing well!