pscz1140

Went on a great bike ride in the sun today to the Ballard Locks. 3 feet of snow would be nice, but I'm enjoying some lemons for now.

Just noticed that Señor Google and I are the only "members" logged on right now (in this thread). I can't remember the last time that's happened before 2 a.m. Much like the stock market, things don't usually turn around until there's complete capitulation. Things are looking up!

Wow, experiencing one of the heaviest rain showers I've seen in my 12 years in Seattle. Sheets of windblown sideways rain with some small hail too. Tailgaters must not be happy right now.

It was better when there were two versions of the GFS. I used to just pick the best one.

I've seen worse 00z ECMWF runs....

The first bar I ever went to was in Rossland (drove there my freshman year in college from Boulder, CO). My friend tried to order a Flaming Sambuca, then a Flaming Dr. Pepper when his first request was not available. The bartender replied "We don't flame s**t here." It was also his first time in a bar. The next day we skied bottomless pow at Red Mountain. I think it had been snowing for 10 days straight and the trees were giant triangles of snow. There was a handwritten sign at the bottom lift that said "shovels and transceivers recommended in area." I've never seen that at a ski area since. That was 23 years ago.......good times!

Had some snow flurries here a few minutes ago. Almost forgot what that stuff looked like.

At least 48 MPH gusts at SEA and 58 at Tacoma McChord in the last 15 minutes. Power has flickered a couple of times here. Got the windows cracked open - love the sound!

Saw that but I was surprised it was even snowing at all. I expected a depressing scene even up there but it was really nice to see some big flakes coming down. Was up there skiing at the end of May last year and it was snowing at the top 1,000 feet or so on Blackcomb. The summit is about the same elevation as Crystal's as I'm sure you know but that few hundred miles north makes all the difference sometimes.

Roasting in Seattle, but it's dumping snow at Whistler at least. I won't be there until March, but it's nice to look at some snow in this subtropical weather! http://snow.whistler-blackcomb.com/whistlercam/roundhouse2.jpg

Not sure what you mean by "obviously not." I like almost any weather. Yesterday was great, and I'm enjoying today too.

It would be nice to just see some snow, even if it doesn't stick. It doesn't take much to make me happy.

Wow, this has suddenly gotten much more interesting! From the SEA NWS discussion this morning: .SHORT TERM... AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWLAND INTERIOR THIS MORNING. A WET BULB COOLING PROCESS WAS OCCURRING. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A SPOTTER IN NORTH BEND WHO STATED THAT THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED FROM 47 DEGREES TO 37 DEGREES IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES. THIS MEANS THAT WHERE IT IS RAINING...EXPECT TEMPS TO PLUMMET 10-15 DEGREES AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE...LEADING TO A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS DUE TO WET BULB OR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. NOW...THIS MEANS THAT MANY LOWLAND SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY BUT MORE LIKELY TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH TODAY. TONIGHT...PRECIP RATES WILL INCREASE LEADING TO MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTERIOR AND THE HOOD CANAL AREA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE HOOD CANAL ZONE. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AS ADVISORY AMOUNTS /1 TO 3 INCHES/ WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED MONITORING IS THE AREA ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=SEW

Wow, light rain/snow mix at SEA. 44 degrees with a DP of 30.

Meaningless in terms of being a trend. It was more of a quick jump from a good solution to a mediocre one. Things are now trending a bit better for the American models and hopefully that will continue. Obviously the Euro is a mess. Still holding onto a bit of hope....I tend to be an optimistic guy.

The 00z looked a bit better than the 18z. If the 6z looks even better then that's a trend. What you showed is meaningless at this point.

Thanks a lot for the info. The mean surface temp at SEA drops below 20 degrees on that model set, which would be quite surprising. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140227&RT=21&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=SEA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=47.52698757196143&mLON=-121.97388133295476&mTYP=roadmap

Wow, so the short-range ensemble mean shows at least 4 inches of snow for Seattle. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140227&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=SEA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=47.52698757196143&mLON=-121.97388133295476&mTYP=roadmap

00z GFS looks a bit better......I'm not giving up yet!!

I'm holding out for a miracle. Just need that low to move in a 100 miles south or so. I'm sure stranger things have happened. Obviously it wouldn't hurt if the initial vorticity would set up a bit further south.

Just took a look at the 18z ensembles. I can't remember the last time that all of the ensembles were in one camp and the operational was so drastically different at such a short range. It's like 6 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean two days out. I understand the terrain issues, but wow.

I will try to procure some ostriches then. I'm willing to do whatever it takes!!

Great post jaya. Thanks for your detailed analysis. Will be doing snow dances, sacrificing chickens, etc. in Capitol Hill in order to make this happen!

I agree. Burke has never been a very loquacious dude.

Hopefully we can pull a November 2010 out of our a**es!!