Trinomial

My grid was just recently updated to "heavy snow" and 3 - 5 inches. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like we'll get more than 2. Wonder why they just changed it? It was at 2 - 4.

We had so many times where within 24 hours the model trends opposite. Lets see if that can happen!

What will have to happen to have this storm shift further north again? Is the arctic air just pushing it south?

Hi-RES 12z NAM looks almost identical to me. I might be wrong though, but track as well as qpf looks very similar with little movement compared to the 6z. Are we thinking 25:1 ratios still?

Skilling just posted that last nights heaviest snows fell along the I39 corridor. Did the Hi-res models pick up on that, Tom?

So what model was the most accurate with the New Year's Eve storm's track/amounts? Just curious to see what we should maybe be paying more attention to for this one (If that even matters). With the 6z runs, the NAM seems a little bit more widespread with totals, and the GFS seems a touch more south. Do any snow maps even take into account a possible 25:1 ratio? Thanks everyone for all the info!

Is this still looking like all rain this afternoon, or is anyone seeing a changeover? Thanks!

Thanks, Tom. I feel like some dynamic cooling could be in the cards. My high tomorrow is 35 - doesn't seem too far fetched that this all can be snow. My grid shows no rain at the moment. What time tomorrow night is the wave supposed to begin?

So what are your thoughts on totals for N IL including the 1 - 2 from the overnight hours? Thanks,Tom!

I would not doubt this changes again with the 00z runs later tonight. This year, you can't believe a model until about 12 hours before the storm actually hits - At least it seems that way lately.

Do you think Chicago area is out of the main system then, Tom? Meaning we will most likely only see a max of a couple inches? I was hoping maybe we'd see a little south east shift, but what I'm getting is that it's not realistic that will really happen.

There is still plenty of time for shifts. I recall the last storm watches were put out 12 hours before the storm only to be taken down for Chicago suburbs.

Since it's windy out there, I thought I'd share this great site...Sorry if it has been posted before: https://www.windyty.com/ It has great layers and local forecasts...Not to mention it it has futurecast on wind!

Not saying it won't warm-up, but I do remember the CPC showing the lower 48 being all above average in November. If we do have a warm December we'll just have to cancel it out with November and hope we see some nice snow come January! Maybe when more computing power comes to the models, we will get much more accurate readings.

Geos, Are you referring to this weekend? My grid is even showing mid 40's through next week. Are you thinking it won't even hit 40 on Saturday?

Snowing here now too!

believe me, I love snow...I was trying to be optimistic saying it's not even winter yet, so I'll take an inch of snow and be happy! I was just going off of what IZZI was saying with the LOT's discussion. I really hope for more!

So it's looking like NIL won't even hit advisory level snow...that's okay. It's not even winter yet!

I am wondering if they may back off on the totals for the advisory in NIL...

At this rate, I wouldn't doubt seeing the 00z runs tonight changing things up again!

Does it look like we will be getting another arctic blast around Thanksgiving? Thanks!

It will be a while before the models pin point this storm for next week. I remember last year 24 hours out there were big shifts north and south.

The NAM was definitely the most consistent last year 48 hours out from what I recall.

What do you mean by seasonal but not winter? Sorry, I'm not sure what that means in meteorology terms. Thanks!

Hey Geos, I know the record won't happen here, but does snowfall in the spring still count towards the 2014 winter snow totals? Thanks!