Phil

FWIW, the majority of similar years were indeed +QBO.

Credit for this graphic goes to twitter handle @griteater. October/November average AAM anomaly was the 6th highest on record since 1958. There aren't many -ENSO/+QBO analogs featuring a positive anomaly, save 1985/86, 1980/81, 1959/60, and 1995/96. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/59333E7D-E5AB-4476-8666-63A4F49CDA03_zpsp5tehdbz.jpg

Uber-clown range GFS brings the mother load of Arctic air into the country.

FWIW, the GGEM has been even more flip-floppy than the GFS/GEFS for the upcoming period..and that's really saying something. Ensemble means are the way to go, obviously.

Look at that small ULL vort over the Aleutians, right underneath the block. That vort will try to phase with the kona low and ignite further offshore vorticity..

Eh, 12z GFS looks to be following 06z's lead with the westward trend of the initial anticyclonic breaker, hence a more progressive downstream solution..

The d11-15 00z EPS looks better than the GEFS, by comparison. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DBEFCC98-7226-4F0D-B68A-1009EA677259_zpsawdyeozz.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CD9AD042-1A23-4497-BF67-FD7B22F48B95_zps5lswra81.png

What a swing in the GEFS..yikes. Literally a complete reversal in the 500mb pattern during the d11-15 range. All thanks to a minor difference in the tropical forcings. Yesterday's 18z vs current 06z. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CB9623B4-A52B-4B05-B385-2E36B17F71C4_zpsp7pss1ef.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BA769995-EC28-44B7-8246-AA29DF996EA7_zpsbzep1iu8.png

Storm king redux.

Plenty of potential, but unfortunately the tropical convection wants to set-up around 120E (instead of 150E) which generally favors a westward shift in the poleward anticyclonic wavebreaking, towards the west/central Aleutians vs the more classic GOA/EPO domain.

That upstream block is just too far west. Ideally we want it sitting right over the AK/NE-GOA area, not the west-central Aleutians.

Down to 969mb onshore, lol.

That's one heck of a low on d6/7. Down to 973mb as it moves onshore.

Everything a bit farther west/slower through 72hrs.

Ooof lol.

I'm leaning towards a February climax. If that fails, I then agree with your thoughts here.

It's still weird looking to me.

Lol. Once those first flakes start falling, nothing is enough.

Posted this in the other thread unknowing of the existence of this one. Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS. Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run most likely, at least relative to the GFS. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zpsehs5zgit.png

Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS. Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run. So..meh. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zpsehs5zgit.png

Wavebreak cycles way too far west this run.

Yeah, but this is super-BS IMO. At least in regards to the NPAC in week 2.

What hell is going on w/ the NPAC wavetrain in the LR?

That's a lot of cold air in west-central Canada in the clown range.

Yeah, I'm no fun. Lol.