Phil

Yikes, second anticyclonic wavebreak just fails altogether.

Tropical forcing much different this run. Uplift centered right along that 120E marker, which in a +QBO is usually no bueno.

Drunk uncle is sober today.

00z ECMWF isn't very good. Not enough large scale amplification.

They're a great tool if you know how to use them.

Almost too much PV/+AO in the clown range, but otherwise the tropical/subtropical progression is absolutely perfect.

Zing.

December 2008.

Where the heck is Jim?

Now a third anticyclonic breaker following in perfect sequence after the first two cycled beautifully. Hard to get much better than this.

Nearly perfect synchronization between waves. This run is a pants tent.

Oh boy. Break out the vodka for this run.

Stronger upstream blocking, deeper western trough..risk is that everything ends up too far west but if not..boom.

The anticyclonic wavebreak is going to be even stronger this run. Here we go..

I'll do my best to telepathically push that Arctic air mass over you guys.

That's one monster anticyclonic breaker on the 12z EPS mean. Will be hard to fail if that comes to fruition.

We'll kick your a**es in the end, so it's all good.

Yeah, the location of the vortex and best wave driving has been on the wrong side of the globe. Hopefully we'll get the PV onto our side of the pole, then blast it to pieces in January (the latter of which I think is more likely than not during the second half of winter).

This'll be a solid run for Fred and myself, though.

Hey, don't shoot the messenger! Take your beef to the man upstairs. He's a cold, twisted fellow. In reality I think the PV was always bound to strengthen as the bihemispheric wavedrive reverses, which'll eventually shove the vortex onto our side of the pole. In the process we lose the WAFz fluxes which allows it to strengthen.

Nah, the early December stuff was always a tease IMO.

Crap. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

Polar vortex is dominating on the 00z GFS. That thing is vertically stacked and fully coupled through the stratopause by 216hrs.

Has been a theme for awhile, unfortunately.