Phil

I'm probably driving down to Saint Simons today, booked a hotel room and everything. If that area is going under, I'm going under with it.

Yikes, I feel you there.

The upper level pattern ended up almost exactly as I thought, however my knowledge of surface temperature dynamics in the PNW is fairly weak, so I'm not happy with my performance in that regard.

During the transition maybe. Would occur between the 20th and the 30th, should it happen.

The 12z EPS is hinting at a pattern change towards the end of week 2. Starts to weaken/retrograde the GOA vortex, similar to how the weeklies do.

Que the Saw theme song: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E1A0D70A-B057-455B-A00B-42941D2C109E_zpsesz0bulf.jpg

Here's what October 2010 looked like. Very similar. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62E0F8B9-6168-40B0-B3E9-059C7BCAE689_zpsriwuifw2.jpg http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B451BE96-8A58-4A6A-BF9D-616B890FD3DB_zpscfbx2xys.png

There's more than just those two (1942, 1988). Years like 2010/11 and 2013/14 had some October ridging/warmth. October 2010 is an exceptional match this far. You guys *almost* scored huge that January..pattern was just a tad too zonal but small tweaks and it would've been an amazing January snowfall event bookended by two separate Arctic blasts, one in November and the other in February. I'm not worried at all. You guys will do fine, while I sit under a SE ridge, watching jealously.

Zing!

Yikes, man. You're putting SilverFallsAndrew's meltdown to shame.

Just for the record, my comment on the weeklies wasn't an endorsement. They flip around quite a bit in the long range. In hindsight, I probably shouldn't have posted about them.

That's quite an interesting forecasting methodology.

Justin seems to believe otherwise. Statistically I agree it's not the best signal, but as he stated, it's not a death knell by any means.

You sound like me during the summer.

I really believe you're overthinking all this.

Why? Looks similar to the progression in 2010/11. Didn't that winter have two blasts? One in Novemner and another in February?

Yeah, bias has been ~ 2-3 degrees too warm in the west, centered over the Intermountain region. Even accounting for that, both the 500mb and sfc temperatures are higher/warmer than average. Basically the GOA vortex regime begins to degrade, which throws a western ridge up as a discontinuous retrogression begins. Might put a ridge back in the GOA when it's all said and done?

Some of the members do retrograde the GOA vortex enough to pop a ridge just offshore, but most members keep the NPAC troughy overall.

New Euro weeklies are a toaster bath for the second half of October. Between +5 and +8 at the surface over the western 2/3rds of the country. Meanwhile, November flips cold over most of the US with a few solid EPO shots down the lee of the Rockies.

Makes me sick to my stomach. Just barely misses blasting the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on its way up, too.

Oh no, the loop doesn't complete! Going back for a third landfall? Hopefully just the goofus being its goofy self.

Lol GFS w/ Matthew. Makes landfall as a major, loops back out, then tries to make another landfall as a major in the same region.

And too warm at every other station. Just joshing, Tim.

I'm leaning towards a quick right hook before it gets here. I'm worried about the Georgia Isles, though. That area is like a second home to me.

Notable similarities to 2010 on the latest modeling. Keeps trending stronger with the polar blocking as well.