Phil

You don't find it at least a little bit funny? Many of the ECMWF ensembles are even blasting SoCal with storminess now. Would be crazy if they were to cash in during a Niña autumn, to a greater extent than they did during the super-niño last winter.

00z GFS is depicting a heavy subtropical jet during week2, stronger than anything observed last fall/winter, even rivaling the jet back in 1997/98. Hilarious.

Good point. The flat ridge south of the Aleutians is actually a reflection of the descending (sinking) branch of the Pacific Hadley Cell. It's unusually broad/poleward right now, even by modern standards. Blah. Need to get that wave-1 tropical-convective signal back, which'll tilt the longitudinal IO/PAC Hadley Cell gradient, ousting the zonal Pacific Jet.

Mama Nature is trollolololing us.

Perhaps, but (as of yet) this broad/poleward cell regime has yet to change. In fact, as of the September data, the Hadley Cells are probably as poleward biased (globally speaking) as they've ever been in the modern record.

I didn't include them because their Hadley/Z-cells are ridiculously different vs modern years. I'd have included them if I thought they had any chance at usefulness as far as comparisons between seasonal progressions are concerned.

I never said anything like that. Just clarifying. I think you were the one predicting a strong Niña, not me.

In the raw, here's satellite-era weak/mod -ENSO Octobers that preceded blocky winters: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/60061ADF-85CA-4D47-AE78-29DA7CE30FC9_zpsffbktryz.png Versus those that preceded zonal winters. Not a huge difference, except over Eurasia/NE Siberia: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DF431A14-5778-435A-B9FD-81E3A77A399D_zpsa8zesbc6.png Difference: Eurasian gradient and EPO still predictors: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/26DFFE6C-7AD9-4E97-A19A-9FF13BD062D3_zpsnrgrhgvt.png

Here's a comparison between -ENSO Octobers preceding blocky winters, and -ENSO Octobers preceding zonal winters, all within the satellite era. Note the difference in the EPO. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E3D55BA5-EACD-41AB-9007-EBFA5E03B304_zpsjhvmjf97.png

Many of the -ENSO/+QBO analogs delivered in February, as well. I highly doubt this is a one-and-done winter, given what will probably be a highly variable/transient pattern progression. If there's one thing I'm confident of in regards to this winter, it's a highly variable, unstable pattern progression. This background state is just too weak to constrain things much, IMO.

I understand. Probably best if I simply lay off the ramblings on intraseasonal stuff for awhile. Hasn't done me any favors and probably belongs in another forum anyway.

Has anyone actually forecasted a "semi-permanent offshore low"? Just curious. That said, I definitely regret my posts making intraseasonal comparisons to Niño years, and will refrain from doing so in the future. I didn't realize it'd be taken out of context and start a war.

You're the only one having a meltdown. I don't see weenie meltdowns from anyone else but you.

I haven't been a member for 8 years, and that was years ago. You have the IQ of a chipmunk.

He's emotionally-dependent on the CFS, which runs four times per day. Enough said.

Maybe consider taking a Valium?

Lol. I'm honestly tired of Niños. They're boring and predictable for the most part. Hence why I was rooting on the Niña all summer long.

Your commentary is as worthless as the CFS.

I'm not even looking into it like that. I don't think it matters in relation to winter, given it's probably an emergent intraseasonal-scale excursion, similar to the one that occurred for a few weeks in August. It's just fascinating to me from a scientific standpoint, as these emergent behaviors are something I've been trying (and failing) to figure out for years.

Lol

What if the CFS flips tomorrow and shows a Niño?

Of course they'll change, that wasn't the point I was making (or at least was trying to make). I guess this probably isn't the right thread to discuss it, though. Oh, and just to clarify, in no way, shape, or form am I anticipating anything resembling a Niño this winter.

No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me. How/why these seemingly systematic behaviors emerge is one of the great mysteries of sub-seasonal meteorology.

This is funny, because current SSTAs are almost perfectly opposite. This is a good illustration of the distinction between the systematic background state, and intraseasonal forcing/feedback. The SSTAs don't constrain the atmosphere to a high frequency degree. They only constrain the lower frequency background tendencies. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Just to highlight the Niño-ish nature of the forecasted pattern, here is the aggregate of the aforementioned years: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7390CC9B-2E4A-4B38-95F5-250A6420FEE7_zpssp5oxakh.png