Scott26

yes, easily. I can barely see out my window, its just all white. I can see this persisting for the next 3-4 hours before it begins to pivot to the south and east.

Yes, I am home on spring break. I managed to miss pretty much every significant snow event this year (not like there were that many), but I am glad to witness this one!

Its pretty wild over here. Already picked up around 3.5" of lake effect snow. Snow depth around 6" since there was a lot of compaction from the snow that fell last night.

Also a bit more QPF then the 12Z Euro run. Looks like the low pressure may have been slightly farther to the south which didn't have the dry slot surge as far north this time. Eastern Nebraska into Western Iowa will be the jackpot area, but Central Iowa is looking pretty good.

Jim Cantore is in Omaha. I think you Nebraska posters are going to be fine haha.

Central Iowa is under a Blizzard Watch for 8-12 inches and sustained winds from 25 to 35 gusting over 40 mph. I'm thinking that my classes will definitely be canceled on Tuesday and maybe even some morning classes Wednesday if conditions are still bad due to blowing snow.

I haven't had time to post at all, but I have been tracking this storm since it showed up on the models in fantasy land. If you are in Eastern Nebraska you don't have anything to worry about. The models are coming to an consensus and any shift, south or north, will likely only be 25-50 miles which won't be a problem. Things are looking good over here too in Central Iowa with the models consistently showing me in some of the highest snow totals. With this kind of pressure gradient and how the winds mix to the surface so effectively I wouldn't be surprised if a Blizzard Watch is issued from Eastern Nebraska into Iowa today or tomorrow.

This looks to be a very interesting system that looks to result in a major winter storm for somebody. The key is for the southern stream to phase with a piece of a polar vortex that drops south. Similar to the last system we tracked pretty much any slight change in time of either waves will result in a different outcome. I wouldn't get too invested in what any of the models are showing now being this is bound to change many times as we get closer.

Want to use some science to back yourself up?

Same here Geos. Huge flakes and coming down hard.

I'm having a lot of fun with this storm. I don't think I have ever seen it sleet so hard for such a long duration before. I tried walking my dog and neither of us lasted very long because ice pellets hurt! lol

The temp is staying pretty consistent at 31 degrees. The RAP/NAM doesn't have a changeover to rain here until 6.

Ice pellets in Buffalo Grove. Looks like heaviest freezing rain so far is West-Central Illinois with ice accumulations approaching a quarter of an inch.

Looks like I may have transitioned to freezing rain here? Maybe some ice pellets mixed in. Pretty tough to tell at this point.

Snowing huge flakes over here as better returns go over my area.

Started off as snow here with a dusting. Starting to transition to sleet.

Because you get more snow in your backyard. I agree with you actually, but I will use a meteorological reason to back myself up. I think intense convection in the south will cause this low to end up being on the southern end of guidance. This is very similar to the storm last year around Christmas which trended south last minute and also had intense convection and tornadoes in the south.

I think it's likely we will see widespread power outages tomorrow especially west of I-55. Ice accumulations on power lines and very strong winds are a very bad combination.

Storm Lake, Iowa

It's interesting that the GGEM is showing significantly more QPF then any model in the cold sector. With a storm this dynamic you have to take in account there will likely be convective snow banding which may produce some of these heavier totals. I think offices will begin to forecast this once there is more certainty where exactly the heaviest banding will occur.

It makes sense perfectly. With the GFS/GGEM track the NW part of Missouri would have potentially more than 6 inches of snow. Even a farther west track like the Euro would put the NW part of the state in a wintry mix for the duration of the event. Remember that Winter Storm Watches are issued for only the potential of a high impact winter storm. They can always issue a winter storm advisory if needed instead of a warning.

Put up winter storm watches and outline the uncertainty of the exact track.

I don't think this will be an absolutely crippling ice storm by any means, but with the strong winds and ice accumulating on the power lines the hardest hit areas will likely experience widespread power outages. Right now the WPC is outlines Eastern Iowa into NW Illinois for the mostly likely area of seeing greater than 0.25 inches of ice accumulation.

With dynamic systems like this the NAM tends to have convective feedback issues which pushes the low NW. This is why I personally don't use the NAM until at least within 24 hours.

The 18Z GFS is a very nice track for heavy snow for our western forum members. My thinking is that this is probably as far southeast this system will go. You can see on recent runs that the high pressure doesn't press as far south and east plus with the lack of snow cover across the region this tends to lead storms to track further west. Still plenty of time for more model shifts and there is a still huge disparity between the GFS and Euro so this will be interesting to watch how this plays out.