Niko

I remember the super-storm 93 monster. That was a doozy of a snow system. Near a foot fell in myby. Nice storm!

That is exactly correct. Major swings this winter is what I am seeing. I do know that our temps will be above normal and hopefully, everything comes into play at the perfect timing to see a couple of snowstorms. Maybe take us to near average by spring. Nino winters are tough to go by and all we can do is hope for the best. Who knows, maybe Ma Nature will be kind to us and provide us w/ an above normal snowfall this winter. Dont forget, we can still get snow w AN temps as my average high in Jan is 30 or 32F and average lows in the teens. Same w February, although, averages start climbing by mid Feb.

It gets real chilly this weekend, but gets even colder for next weekend. It could be a long stretch of cold air b4 any moderation moves in.

Blizzard of 1996 in NYC was on my mind today..not sure why, maybe because we are heading into winter eventually I guess...but man, I wish I can turn back time and relive that storm. Such a massive blizzard!!! It began snowing Saturday morning at 7:00am and it just kept snowing very heavy w/ winds of 50-70mph continuously for 37 Hours straight. In northern Queens where I lived at that time, I received near 30" and could not even see the cars on the street w/ drifts as high as 8Ft. Temps throughout the storm were frigid. Mainly in the low teens and at night they dropped in the single digits w severe blizzard conditions. The whole area was a standstill. I don't think I will ever see a storm of this magnitude ever again. Here..are some incredible pics:

It will get might cold Sunday and Sunday nite w highs not getting outta the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F. First freeze of the season for S MI. Freeze and Frost advisories are looking likely for this weekend. Growing season has officially ended.

This is where we stand so far: So far, S MI doing good w more hvy rains by weeks end.

This upcoming weekend after the rainstorm exists, my area stands the potential for its first real frost as temps drop to near 30F or so. I would not be surprised if areas way north and west experience temps as low as the 20s. Some Freeze and Frost advisories might be looking likely for the latter part of this weekend.

Nice! Are you able to adjust to this type of weather this time of the year. By now, Chicagoan's are wearing jackets and hoodies, while you are experiencing 100's. Must be a huge change for you tempwise. Enjoy the south. Its great to experience other places. Also, dont forget to post snowpics from the snowy mtn's this late autumn season and especially winter. Btw: Aspen, CO is on my bucket list.

Its a chilly 48F w/ a blend of clouds & Sun. Leaves are approaching near peak.

Typical Nino Pattern. Looks reasonable for my neck of the woods, but with this map however, I disagree w/ areas to the south (especially from @Clinton place point southward and to all of the NE corridors up and down showing AN temps. It should show BN temps as all of these areas will be in for a harsh winter w lots of storminess, especially up the EC. Anyway you look at it, (even areas that stay AN all winter) will be in for some real wild swings from time to time and somewhere in between, will get a snowstorm or 2, maybe 3, if we are lucky that will be meaningful, but temps overall (especially here in mby) will stay be AN. We will see how all of this plays out, but one thing is for sure, this map definitely needs to be changed for a lot of the south to BN temps, if not, well BN.. TWC makes its usual typical forecast and then adjusts everything last second.

Looks like very wet weather moving in late next week. Temps remain chilly all of next week as well.

I forget to add in winter 2011-12. That has had to be the worst ever. Least amount of snowfall and very mild temps. I remember it was my first autumn/winter season here in S MI coming from NYC and thinking to myself, "Am I in the right city or am I down south." It was so mild, I could not believe it. Of course, all hell broke loose later in 2013-14 when record snowfall and cold was recorded. Not sure if that year was a Nino year...or was it not??

Thunderstorms.....still in the forecast here in mby in October. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 349 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-080800- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 349 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a very low chance for thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 35 mph and pea size hail will be possible with any thunderstorms observed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

It will be mighty cold tanite as temps drop into the 30s w the possibility of Frost and Freeze advisories. As @jaster220 mentioned in his post, (look below) NOAA has S MI included. I will definitely have to switch my AC now to heat. Brrrr.

There is a chance that highs could be in the 40s on Sunday for myby. Yikes. This is some really chilly air coming.

2015-16 , 2018-2019. I believe these were very strong Nino's and also perhaps so powerful that they were record Nino's.

Whatever the case may be, I don't think we will have much of a winter this year, especially here in my neck of the woods. El Nino pattern is typically boring here. Hopefully, we can squeeze out 1 or 2 snowstorms, if we get lucky.I think there will be a lot of mixing going on. Anyways....we will see what happens. Hoping we get clobbered. EC looks like a prime spot. Moving on.

Showers have arrived and now temps begin to fall. This weekend will be a chilly one. Low 50s for highs at best and 30s for lows. There could be a Frost Advisory for some. Stay tuned!!! Next week we warm to near 60F but back into the 50s all week.

Yes...I agree. Straight to the point...whether you like it or not.

So, if its not by skill, then why are they working there at NOAA. They should have been fired already, right? They must be doing something right. Anyway, I think they are going w a very strong El Nino, which, I can see why they posted those maps, but again, like you said, they could be incorrect. Time will tell. Overall, It looks like this winter will be a real complicated one, especially for the folks living up to the north.

I truly hope this is hot garbage or else my area isn't getting any decent white stuff this winter.

NOAA releases 2023-2024 winter predictions for Michigan Discussion from NOAA: For the first time in years, an El Niño winter is upon us. That means this year’s winter outlook, released by the Climate Prediction Center, looks a little different than it has in several years. The last three winters have been dominated by La Niña, which typically means a dry winter in the southern half of the country and colder, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. But that’s not the case this year, as a strong El Niño looks very likely to stick with us through early next year. This year the CPC, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the northern United States through the winter months. While the North experiences a drier-than-normal winter, the majority of the South looks like it may see a wetter winter. Southern California, the Southwest, Gulf states and much of the East Coast are leaning toward more precipitation than normal. I guess we will have to wait and see how all this plays out this winter. We can still get a big dawg or 2 in situations like these, but not always. Anyway, my December outlook from what I saw looks to be pure torch. Hello El Nino.

@Tom I am looking forward to seeing you in those snow pics from Flagstaff, AZ. They get walloped in the winter w those big winterstorms. You will definitely enjoy snow now. Great move!

One more day of summer-like weather and then reality returns w/ a vengeance. This weekend will definitely have Autumn conditions as an upper level low spins and gets cut off, along w/ chilly temps and scattered showers being around w a little sun trying to peak out from those mean looking clouds. Lows will be cold w/ readings failing into the 30s. Highs mainly in the low 50s, at best.

Couple of more days of 80s and then the bottom falls. High by next weekend are expected to be in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s for my area. Probably near 40F in the Detroit Metro area. Would not rule out possible our first Frost Advisories for next weekend for some areas here in S MI. Btw: NYC picked up record rainfall last Friday and into Saturday (some recorded all time records in Queens) w/ over 7" . The city was under water. I was there this weekend for a quick getaway (just 1 day) for business and pleasure. Some terminals were flooded inside the airport, subways were underwater, some streets were impassable and etc. Total disaster. They said that Queens and NYC got hit the hardest. Man, if this was winter and cold air was around....OOh Boyyyyy. Alot of people would have been digging out for weeks.