Tom

ORD picked up 0.4" up until their 6:00pm observation...wondering if they hit 1.0"...if they did, that would be 36.7" for the season and that's the yearly average.

That ain't happening, typical GFS feedback problems. I don't see that ridge in northern Pacific breaking down and with AO/NAO showing blocking those are all cold signals.

That's a whacky 00z GFS run...AO/NAO are both negative in the 10-15 Day range...weird to have such warm temps nationwide.

The system poised to hit the PAC NW end of January and develop over the Plains may be the kick start to that stormier pattern. The LRC will be reaching its stormiest part of the cycle so it will be interesting if we can get some juicy storms to dump heavy moisture where some have not seen this whole winter. JB touched on the fact that Feb may turn out to be a country divided from north to south in terms of cold/warm. He used the winter analogs of '17/'18 and during that winter the severe cold pattern took a break in February except for the northern half of the country.

A little over 1" here...you can see how fluffy this snow is...in fact, you can still see the patio deck through 1" of snow on the ground. Goes to show you how transparent the snow is.

It's all gonna come down to when this starts to pivot eastward. Hang in there guys on the northern end, I think we will see some surprises. Southern end is a really sharp cut off. Like I said, I like my chances on the northern side of this Clipper. Looks good on radar.

Precip really exploding in MN/ND right now...20-25DBZ's

00z NAM a little better for NE IL...slight shift east...seems like it pivots earlier to the east which brings the heavier precip farther east.

Actually, it starts pivoting eastward towards the end of the run. I think E IA will do well with this Clipper. Newest run through 4:00am showing convective nature to this system. Some juicy totals showing up in MN...

HRRR...

I just went outside and this snow has to be 30:1 ratio's..its fluffier than Lake Effect Snow. Should continue through 10:00pm.

+1 Tony, nice fat flakes coming down. Very fluffy snow, I would say snow ratios are prob 20:1 with this. I'm getting close to 0.5" already.

Signs of that big storm starting to show up on the GFS and taking a track farther north. Wondering how much the cold to the north will have an effect on the storm track down the road.

Looks like this will be a SW suburb event for Chicago...I'm hoping to squeeze 2" so that can atleast cover any grassy areas showing up and put some fresh snow down.

I read that in Des Moines there was thunder and lighting last night that included a Blizzard Warning during the evening rush hour yesterday. Joe D'Aleo mentioned in his blog today on Wx Bell that this similar event is compared to what a squall line that has a bow echo effect during a thunderstorm in the summer time. Pretty cool stuff.

Radar is looking pretty decent in WI and showing some banding developing in E WI and now in NE IL. RGEM really picked up on this happening. Could lay down more than 1" in spots through the evening.

Some light snow moving into NE IL...maybe pick up 0.5-1.0"...

18z NAM...I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge with this Clipper. Feel good that 2" is probably what I'll end up with.

Anyone have the SREF's for ORD???

12z Euro...

That band of snow in S/SE WI looking good as it is pivoting SE...RGEM had a good handle on this band and seems like there is some LehS going on. Hoping to get in on that band later this afternoon/evening.

12z RGEM...some of the models are showing a thing stripe of .30qpf now indicating what LOT has mentioned in their Disco. I think this system is going to be a nowcast as it will be to hard to predict where this heavier band of 5-6" of snow may set up. I think ORD is good to get 2-3". It seems the Clipper wants to pivot east once it hits IL so that will be important as to how much NE IL receives from this Clipper.

Regarding the 500mb comment, I know that you know we don't live at 500mb...just commenting on the fact that temps this winter have ended up being colder even thought the 500mb pattern showing above normal height anomalies along the east coast.

Where are you from IbrChris??? Euro weeklies beyond Week 3 are hard to digest. The map above you posted is def nice to see a SE ridge, but remember, we don't live at 500mb and the tendency for the model to hold back the trough in the west is its downside. Joe Bastardi has shown many examples of a SE ridge being projected by some models in the past and the cold this winter would press enough SE to suppress the SE ridge for cold to win out in the Midwest/OV and create a favorable storm track around these parts.

00z Euro weak run...but more widespread with precip...weakens as it heads into IL...