Tom

Where are you from IbrChris??? Euro weeklies beyond Week 3 are hard to digest. The map above you posted is def nice to see a SE ridge, but remember, we don't live at 500mb and the tendency for the model to hold back the trough in the west is its downside. Joe Bastardi has shown many examples of a SE ridge being projected by some models in the past and the cold this winter would press enough SE to suppress the SE ridge for cold to win out in the Midwest/OV and create a favorable storm track around these parts.

00z Euro weak run...but more widespread with precip...weakens as it heads into IL...

Indeed, I think I mentioned to you that around Week 3 and beyond Euro has been having a terrible time this winter. As we get closer in time, the model corrects itself. I'm telling ya, this winter is gonna be a long ride into Spring. If blocking develops (which is looking more evident in Feb), it will be the hand off teleconnections wise for the Lower 48 instead of residing on the EPO/WPO. Feb and Mar are the snowiest months on average in the Midwest so exciting times are just beginning and the LRC will become active very soon.

The map Geo's posted are update around 2:00am CST based on the GFS ensembles. They will probably adjust tonight. 00z GFS run definitely showed a ton of blocking with the PV sitting and spinning in Central Canada near Hudson Bay. That's actually an ideal spot for it to be to have sustained cold and not deflect systems to the south. Hopefully the NAO/AO wont dive that much into the tank so we miss out on the systems.

Get ready for another cold month for a large portion of the lower 48 in February...from the Rockies to the east coast, this looks like it will be the coldest month for the entire winter relative to average.

MKE always hyping totals...wondering if that is an old map posted this afternoon. LOT will adjust totals tonight I'm thinking.

Could have single digit highs Tue-Thu and sub zero nights if we can get 2-3" of snow Saturday

00z RGEM...

There are still more chances for accumulating snows next week before the arctic plunge. Next Thu/Fri period looking interesting to lay down more snow. I think if we can manage to have a 6" snow depth before the Polar Plunge it will be possible to get some double digit sub zero readings if the PV comes down into the Great Lakes.

Anyone from E IA to NE IL is still in the game...its such a thin stripe of accumulating snow that a 50 mile shift either way is still possible 36hours out.

00z NAM precip...nice thin strip of .30qpf...

Nice Fat flakes with this surprise band in NE IL...certainly whitened up the scene and roads while I was driving. Getting slick out there, temps crashing now in the mid 20's. Probably going to end up with 0.5-0.75" right about what the models were forecasting.

Nice map, looks like its showing some LehS for eastern Cook/Lake county...

Geo's, temps have been knocked down by all the models. Only showing 32F for Sunday and mid 20's for Monday with another arctic push early next week and more chances for snow. Trough over the GL will push and keep more sustained cold in our region.

This is such a narrow band of snow that if you get under it, consider yourself lucky! LOL

18z GFS Precip...remember, these runs don't have balloon network data so some wobbling....

18z GFS shifted way west now...snows in E IA now. Bud & EastDubzz are going to be clickin' their heals...

Getting some moderate snow ATM, prob sitting at 0.3"

Maybe 15:1 or less...seems a tad warmer this run. Starts off with temps in 10's, then warm into lower/mid 20's...

18z NAM holds its track but showing signs of weakening as it heads SE...I'd say 2-4" at most for N IL...

12z Euro...

12z Euro Chicago...

I agree Scott, that's what happened with the last Clipper. Approx 36 hours before the event it was looking more and more impressive. However, if it intensifies stronger it can veer more on an easterly track unless it tracks near IA/IL border. Signs pointing to a potent little Clipper. The heaviest band of snow will be very narrow so it will take the perfect track to hit N IL with highest amounts.

I would think 00z runs will be the ones to look for...06z/18z runs don't take into account balloon network data...

12z RGEM developing a Meso Low feature around the southern tip of Lake Michigan Friday night...could enhance snowfall lakeside counties...