Brian_in_Leavenworth

I find for here the WRF ensemble mean is by far more accurate than any other model. Has mailed our snow amounts time after time. Only one bust, when it rained and was 34, and the WRF forecast snow. It beats the NWS more than 80% of the time when there are major differences.

Day 11.5 new GFS

Yeah that's the hard part. Not "wait till next week", it's "wait till next year, or the year after". I am still bitter about the busted winter storm warning for 6-8 inches of snow Christmas Eve night to Christmas morning 1983. It rained. Would have been, even today, the best snowstorm of my life. Not the amount, though that is good too, but the timing would have been perfect, especially since there was just a little bit of snow already on the ground.

I moved from a relatively snow starved place to a place that averages 90 inches. Never get tired of snow in December. The later you get in winter, the less exciting it gets, but still beautiful to watch. But with a small snowfall, like 2 or 3 inches, you hardly notice it, especially later in the winter. Though never as exciting as snow in Western Washington, since there it is an event, the busted snow disappointments are not a big seal because you know there will be more chances soon.

FWIW, probably not much, but the new GFS got quite cold.

EPS doesn't have a ridge bridge. Looks similar to the operational. But between day 10 and 15 it goes from this: To this: Not perfect, but going in a better direction.

Yeah not just how much snow, but how wet the snow is. Wonder if those roof collapses were older roofs, or maybe a 100 year storm.

You would think local building codes would ensure roofs could handle large snow loads. The code here in Leavenworth makes sure roofs can handle even extreme snow depths. The issues we see, especially with new houses designed by architects from the West side, is that they don't take into account where the snow slides when it does. Many house, like mine, have snow guards to prevent sliding, but others will let the snow slide. Some new houses will have snow sliding from different parts of the roof to the same area, and that causes problems when it jams up.

Just like Feb. 2019. That was awful! Only the coldest and snowiest February in history. That sucked!

Haven't been following the models that closely the last few days, but it seems like maybe the GEFS is getting better? Certainly the 18Z is, not sure about the other recent runs. Of course the latest map will have a stronger signal than the one at the bottom since that hour is closer now than it was days ago, but the placement of ridges and troughs is better. Vs:

Bitter cold in Southern BC in the clown range.

Colder than the 12Z day 6 or so

You still think real arctic air will make an appearance in the Northwest?

Colder too.

Those point and click forecasts are not man made. Not that it is inaccurate, but sometimes they have some weird forecasts. Like "snow between 10PM and 1AM, snow level 1,100 feet. Snow mixed with rain between 1AM and 4AM, snow level at 1400 feet, Snow between 4Am and 7AM, snow level 900 feet, rain between 7AM and 10AM, snow level rising to 1300 feet". You know that is a computer talking, not a person. In marginal situations, best to read the AFD's, any special weather statements, and the zone area forecast discussion. Where I live, the point and click forecast is often so far wrong it is

Hour 168 today vs 180 last night

Hour 216 EPS vs 228 last nights EPS

Decent improvement with the EPS in the 5-10 day range. A bit colder, deeper trough, and slower to go west of us.

I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring? Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter. But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year.

Not that I trust the CFS ENSO forecast in January, and in a month it might show the opposite, but it looks like it agrees with you.

On my bucket list.

Guessing the CFS is at a low resolution at hour 1. GFS BTW is at a higher resolution through hour 240.

I think it is pretty normal for it to return to neutral, even in the middle of a multi year Nina.

Speaking of the weeklies . . . First 15 days are the same as last nights. And keep in mind, the weeklies version that I get are the 5 day average anomaly ending on the day of the graphic.